The Tolbert Report

Dick Morris spoke at Tea Party events across the state today and sets his sites not only on Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln and her primary challenger Bill Halter but a Republican Steve Womack who he said he considers a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only.)

Michael Tilley with The City Wire has a report from the northwest Arkansas events where Morris criticized Womack, who is running in the Third Congressional District primary.

“I would urge them not to vote for Womack because Womack is the only one of them who has not signed the American for Tax Reform pledge of no new taxes,” Morris told the Tolbert Report this afternoon. “This issue really is very clear. Obama has increased spending and increased borrowing so that he can come back and increase taxes. And any Republican that is not 100 percent committed not to raise taxes obviously is going to raise them.”

“Two weeks ago in a public forum Womack said ‘Taxes are on the table,’” continued Morris. “Anyone who says taxes are on the table, I think Republican voters should say taxes are off the table. If it’s wearing horns, it’s a RINO.”

Minutes before my interview with Morris, Womack issued a press release saying he had signed the ATR no tax pledge.

“I have signed the Taxpayers Protection Pledge. There is no better day than today to memorialize my longstanding opposition to tax increases,” said Womack in his release. “Today, April 15, millions of Americans went to the post office to mail in taxes they see as burdensome. I sign this pledge in respect to the American taxpayer.” (Full release on the jump.)

I asked Morris above this development.

“It is conceivable that he has signed the Americans for Tax Reform Pledge and that he saw the light today,” responded Morris. “In which case, I congratulate him and I withdraw my criticism and I withdraw my advise to the voters in the district.”

Saying he did not see Womack listed on the website, Morris said, “If he has taken a no tax position but has not signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge, then in addition to being a liberal, he is a liar.”

Michael Tilley  confirmed with American for Tax Reform that the signed pledge was received from Womack around 4:30 this afternoon. Tilley also spoke with Womack who insisted that he planned to sign the pledge today all along and that this timing had nothing to do with Morris remarks.

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Content partner Talk Business released the first poll that looks at the eight-way Republican primary for U.S. Senate.  Previous polls have explored head to head general election match ups but not the primary itself.  The poll sampled 1,357 Republican voters and yielded the following results.

“Clearly, John Boozman has a commanding lead in this primary,” said Talk Business editor-in-chief Roby Brock.  “Gilbert Baker appears to be the most likely contender to make a run-off with Boozman, especially in light of his fundraising strength.  However, a more aggressive strategy from Baker and the other GOP challengers is going to be required after a near year-long campaign to make this a more competitive race.  If something dramatic doesn’t happen to alter the dynamics seen in the current trends, it is conceivable that Boozman could win this primary without a run-off.”

The poll is an automated poll and did not weigh the results based on historical voting patterns in a Republican Primary.  However, using my own methodology found here based on the 2006 Republican primary turn out, the results changes only slightly as shown below.

These results confirm what I have previously stated that the two questions for the May 18 primary is whether John Boozman can reach the 50% required to avoid a run off election and who will win the race for second place and a spot in the runoff if it occurs.  Right now, it appears Baker and Holt are the most likely contenders for that spot.

Content partner Roby Brock released the results a statewide poll he conducted today on the Democratic Senate Primary. The results show that of the 1,167 responding to the survey – 38% preferred incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln, 31% Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, and 10% D.C. Morrison while 20% remained undecided.

These numbers continue the trend of Sen. Lincoln’s support hovering around the 40% mark which is weak support for a two term incumbent in her own primary. Halter is well positioned only 7 points behind her to make a run at beating her. However, if these numbers hold, he will have to attract about two out of every three undecided voters to overtake her.

And then there is the DC factor. No, not the anti-Washington DC mindset – although there certainly is that – but rather the conservative Democratic candidate DC Morrison who is currently attracting 10% of the vote. If he hangs on to at least that much of the vote, then it will be difficult for either Lincoln or Halter to get over 50% of the vote required to avoid a runoff.

And a runoff usually favors the challenger.

The first Republican Senate poll will be release tomorrow morning on Talk Business.

UPDATE – Lincoln for Senate campaign goes on the attack tonight but this time not at Bill Halter but rather at pollster Roby Brock and newcomer DC Morrison. 

In a press release just minutes ago, they put out an internal poll showing them polling just over 50 percent.  Yes, that’s correct – a two-term incumbant Democratic Senator is pushing out an internal poll showing her barely bringing in half of her own party support.  Her poll shows Halter with 34%, Morrison with 3%, and 12% undecided.

“I don’t fault Roby Brock for conducting an automated poll because they are very inexpensive,” Lincoln campaign manager Steve Patterson said.  “However, they are also very unreliable.  We note particularly an unusually high number of undecided voters in Roby’s poll, an oversample of third congressional district Democratic voters and a double-digit reading for a virtually unknown candidate who opposes most Democratic policies.”

Running scared? You decide. Full release on the jump.

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Beth Anne Rankin filed her report today with the Federal Election Commission showing that she has raised $38,294 for her campaign for the Fourth Congressional District as a Republican. She also loaned her campaign $7,501 which is the amount of the filing fee for Arkansas Republican Congressional candidates.  See finished the quarter with $33,038 cash on hand.

Notable among her contributors was $2,400 (the maximum) from former Gov. Mike Huckabee and $1,000 from oil investor Claiborne Deming.

Rep. John Boozman put out his first television ad today for Senate.  Unlike his opponent Gilbert Baker’s first TV ad, Boozman does not go on the attack but instead lays out the reasons to vote for him.

“A Christian upbringing is a life-long gift,” begins the ad. ”John Boozman treasures that gift and shares it everyday. Taught to study hard and dream big, John Boozman earned a degree, played Razorback football and opened up a small town eye clinic which became big time success. Family man. Cattleman. Congressman. John Boozman believes we can achieve any dream. John Boozman for Senate. I’m John Boozman and I approve this message.”

Patrick Creamer, spokesman for the Boozman for Senate campaign, tells me that the ad is running on cable and broadcast in northwest Arkasnas, Little Rock, and Fort Smith so it appears the ad buy is significant.

From my column this week, I took a look at the endorsements Gov. Huckabee has made in the Congressional races in Arkansas. I invite you to read the whole thing over on the Arkansas News Bureau website.

For the column, I interviewed Hogan Gidley who took over as director of HuckPAC after Sarah Huckabee went to be the campaign manager for Boozman for Senate. I have heard good things about Gidley from mutual friends of ours and enjoyed visiting with him. I thought you might enjoy reading the full interview.

Tolbert – All four Congressional districts have contested Republican primaries this year. Why did Gov. Huckabee choose to get involved in these through HuckPAC?

Gidley – All of the candidates that HuckPAC endorses must be passionate advocates for human life, tax reform, a strong national defense, real border security, the family, less government and individual liberty. The Arkansas Congressional races are no different.

Tolbert – Is there plans to get involved in the eight way Republican primary for Senate?

Gidley – There are many strong conservative candidates in the Senate primary who have a long standing friendship with Governor Huckabee. In fact, many stand for the same principles as the Governor and have even fought beside the Governor for those principles. But HuckPAC has no plans to get involved at this time.

Tolbert – What is your response to some that have criticized the Congressional endorsements as based on Gov. Huckabee’s personal ties to the candidates?

Gidley - Anyone who says endorsements are made without regard to personal relationships is being disingenuous. By its very nature, politics is about cultivating relationships. The reason we tend to help candidates who helped Governor Huckabee should be obvious to any seasoned political observer—if someone supported Governor Huckabee when he was a clear underdog, it was clearly a matter of principle and shared conviction. It only stands to reason that we support people who are most akin to our own convictions as evidenced by actual active support. However, to make the claim that HuckPAC only endorses those with close personal ties to the Governor is ridiculous and flat out wrong.

Tolbert - Is their any concern about making endorsements for candidates such as Scott Wallace that are perceived as underdogs in their primary?

Gidley – Governor Huckabee knows something about being an underdog and overcoming overwhelming odds to succeed in life and politics. Whether front-runner, underdog or somewhere in between, it makes no difference. HuckPAC supports conservative Republicans who share our conservative principles.

Republican David Sanders is up on television with a new campaign ad.  Sanders faces John Parke in the Republican primary for district 31, the seat currently held by Rep. Dan Greenberg who is running for the State Senate.  The primary has become heated lately over the issue of abortion, where some pro-choice positions from Parke’s previous race have resurfaced.

Republican Rick Crawford puts out word this afternoon that he has raised $190,000 in the first quarter bringing his cumulative total close to $300,000 with around $200,00 cash on hand.

“I am grateful to all of the people who have put their faith in me to serve as a truth-teller among those in power,” said Crawford. “Professional politicians have long ignored the fiscal crisis in America, which was created by Congress enacting programs that require $56.5 trillion more than our country receives in revenue. Surely this is considered ‘flat broke’ even by Washington standards.” (Click here for the full release.)

Crawford faces Princella Smith in the primary who has not yet released her financial report.

Content partner Talk Business released a poll today on the eight way Republican Primary in the third Congressional district. The results show Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, and former State Sen. Gunner DeLay are the current leaders but almost one in four remain undecided with forty days to go until the May 18 primary. Pundits, including myself, have been thinking that this is how the race stood and this confirms that view. The results are similar to an internal poll released yesterday by the Womack campaign except Womack’s lead over Bledsoe is only 4 points instead of 19 points as his internally conducted poll held.

Arkansas CD3 – GOP
21% Steve Womack
17% Cecile Bledsoe
16% Gunner DeLay
8% Mike Moore
5% Bernie Skoch
4% Steve Lowry
2% Doug Matayo
1% Kurt Maddox
27% Undecided

Watch me discuss the way the U.S. Senate race is shaping up in Arkansas with Roby Brock on Talk Business.  Also, Blake Rutherford appears and changes the subject to the importance of everyone making a bow tie a part of their daily lives.

For extra credit, read my weekly column for the Arkansas News Bureau - “Arkansas Senate Republican Geography 101.”  It is likely to ruffle some feathers so it is probably worth your time to check it out.