The Tolbert Report

A few weeks back President Obama promised Sen. Blanche Lincoln a $1.5 billion farm aid package that she could dole out to buy some votes back in Arkansas but it looks like it may have a hiccup.  Andrew DeMillo reports for the AP that the breaks have been put on it for now.

On that front, the Arkansas Democrat Gazette has an editorial today that says the US Department of Agriculture is going to take special steps to keep anyone from finding out who gets the checks from the $1.5 billion pork package.  In the past, the USDA disclosed this but now ironically they say this will be too costly.

So much for transparency.

In another clear sign the Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s Senate campaign is in serious trouble, she sends out a press release complaining about the lack of debates.  Rep. John Boozman has agreed to three but Lincoln wants more.

It was not too long ago that she was the presumed front runner in her primary fight against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and was avoiding debating him, also claiming that three debates were plenty.  She even blamed her mom for not being able to schedule a debate on Meet the Press.  But now that she is way behind in the polls, three is not enough.

I found this quote from Steve Patterson, campaign manager for Lincoln for Senate especially comical for many reasons.

“It appears that Congressman Boozman is spending a lot of his time reading Republican-biased poll numbers and measuring the drapes for his new Senate office,” Lincoln Campaign Manager Steve Patterson said.

What? Every poll has Lincoln getting beat by wide margin. Even Democratic pollster Nate Silver gives Lincoln a zero percent chance of winning. Yeah – ZERO!

I also notice that the press release quotes a “transcript” of the Boozman-Thune press conference which appears they got from my coverage but did not give any credit.  Oh well.

Full press release on the jump.

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Roby Brock wraps up his polling of the four Arkansas Congressional districts with the race between incumbent Democrat Rep. Mike Ross and Republican challenger Beth Anne Rankin.  This race is unique in that it is the only Arkansas Congressional race with an incumbent seeking re-election and is also the only one where the Democrat has a lead.  Here is how the polling came out…

Rep. Mike Ross (D) 49%
Beth Anne Rankin (R) 31%
Joshua Drake (G) 4%
Undecided 16%

The comfortable lead is perhaps reflective of two things. First, Ross has worked hard to remain in touch with his district. He comes home and travels the district as frequently as possible holding townhall meetings several times in almost every county in his very spread out district.

Because of this, he was one of the first Democratic representatives to pick up on the unrest over the federal health care reform bill and over Washington in general and quickly modified his message veering hard to the right. And these two points are already the focus of his ads in his re-election campaign.

If there is a bright spot for Rankin, it’s that Ross did poll just under 50 percent.  This affords her the opportunity to make the case to the undecided voters as to why she should replace Ross as their representative.  To do this, she will need to put some serious money and effort behind her campaign and introduce herself to the voters for the next two months as at this point she is still largely unknown with almost 40% of the district having no opinion of her yet.

The was a couple interesting items tucked within the pages of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette today (both require subscription.)  One was a letter from retiring Congressman Vic Snyder and the other was a harsh but deserved editorial rebuke for outgoing Arkansas House Speaker Robbie Wills.

Rep. Snyder submitted a letter to the editor to complain about the ADG’s coverage of the race to succeed him between Democratic State Sen. Joyce Elliott and Republican Tim Griffin.  Snyder laments that the ADG covered his Congressional staffer Betsy Barrett being listed on the Hill’s “50 Most Beautiful People” list but did not cover the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington(CREW) listing Griffin as 11 “Crocked Candidates.”

Snyder pretends that CREW is a non-partisan groups but it is not even close to the truth.  CREW is a far left organization that exists to try and give creditability to thin charges against candidates their backers oppose.  Their attacks on Rep. Mike Ross when he opposed health care reform is a classic example of the type of Democrats they sometimes oppose to appear non-partisan.

Snyder is upset that the ADG did not lend some additional creditability to the charges against Griffin.  An article in a statewide publication repeating CREW’s charges would be useful in the attack pieces that no doubt will be running against Griffin.  Unfortunately for Snyder’s chosen successor Elliott, the ADG did not help with their plan.  Obviously the ADG did not think too much of the charges against Griffin either.

A second interesting item today was the filleting of Speaker Robbie Wills for his arrogence on in the ongoing state AugoGate events.  Wills has dug in deeper than anyone by insisting that he is completely entitled to his state provided 2008 Chevy Tahoe and he refuses to pay taxes on the use.  Wills knows better but he is too arrogant to back down.  The ADG does a great job explaining just how bad Wills’ position is.

Speaking of legislators using tax dollar for their travel expenses, make sure not to miss my column tomorrow.

Gov. Mike Beebe admitted yesterday that Republicans in Arkansas have a generic advantage heading into campaign season.  He was responding to a question about Chad Causey’s decision to run against President Obama in the first Congressional district race. (Video from Arkansas Times.)

“What I see – and I think it is fairly consistant with what the experts say – is that on a generic ballot, that this a generic ballot that favors the Republicans,” said Beebe. ”By that I mean if you ask somebody ‘Do you right now favor the R or the D?’ The greater number are responding that they favor the R.”

He said that the Democratic strategy is to focus of retail politics and making sure that voters know them saying feels confident that voters do know and appreciate him.

“In my case, I feel confident that the people of Arkansas are appreciative of how we have all worked together to lead our state through the toughest economic times since the Great Depreciation – the nation is going through the toughest economic times. And as you just heard, we are faring better than virtually any other state – one of only four without projected budget shortfalls.”

These comments mirror some criticism that I have heard about my column on Sunday examining Beebe’s record on jobs.  It cannot be argued that his record is the worst in the last 65 years but his supporters have suggested I look instead at how Arkansas has fared over the same time period compared to other states.

Fair enough, I will take a look.

Chad Causey was asked about President Barack Obama yesterday at a forum with the Arkansas Economic Developers. I found his answer interesting. From the AP…

Democrat Chad Causey, who is running for the 1st Congressional District in east Arkansas, took a mild swipe at the Obama administration when asked to grade the president’s job.

“My mom said if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say it,” Causey said. “This is a tough economy. This all didn’t start 18 months ago. The worst thing we can do is blame others for the problems we face in this country. I’m not going to do that.”

Wow, nothing nice to say? Not even one thing about the Democratic incumbant President? And is he indirectly implying that Obama is to blame for our country’s problem or is he critizing Obama for blaming them on President Bush?

Is it even news when Sen. Blanche Lincoln flip flops on an issue anymore?

Today, she said she might support ending some of the tax cuts expiring at the end of year.  This is after voting for the tax cuts originally and even voting for an amendment offered by Sen. DeMint last month that would have renewed the tax cuts.  From the AP…

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln says she may support ending Bush-era tax cuts for the very wealthy while extending them for the middle class.

Lincoln on Tuesday told the Arkansas Economic Developers that there should be more “balance” in the federal tax code and suggested ending some tax cuts for the wealthy signed into law by former President George W. Bush.

Lincoln is a Democrat seeking re-election. She voted for the Bush tax cuts in 2001.

It is funny how Democrats in Arkansas don’t seem to want to talk about being Democrats anymore now that it is an election year. Democratic House Majority Leader Linda Tyler is one example.  In a video released this week, Rep. Tyler appears with her dog on her lap and an U.S. flag in the background, claiming that she has thrown aside partisan politics despite of being elected elected to the highest partisan position in the Arkansas House.

“When I first ran in 2008, I was a political new comer; I had never run for office before,” say Tyler in her YouTube video.  “I threw aside partisan politics and chose to focus on the issues that affect our families and our community.”

But not everyone is convinced.  One Republican official heavily involved in the state legislature recalls freshman Rep. Tyler towing the Democratic Party line.  On example, Republican Rep. Ann Clemmer introduced a bill that would have required legislators to travel in the most cost effective manner.  According to my source, Tyler at first supported Clemmer even signing on as a cosponsor but later withdrew her support in the House Rules Committee after she was told by the Democratic leadership that they did not support the travel policy.

Tyler faces a re-election campaign against Republican Jimmy Bryant who briefly considered running for Secretary of State.  It will be interesting to see how many Democrats run away from the party label this year.  If the Majority Leader is doing it, my guess is many others will as well.

UPDATE – ARGOP picks up on my theme and asks – “Rep. Linda Tyler: Are you misleading the voters of your district to think that you don’t play partisan politics?”

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette continues it ongoing story on the misuse of state vehicles today with a look at House of Representative’s Speaker Robbie Wills and his refusal to pay taxes on the use of his state owned Chevrolet Tahoe.

“Business use of a state vehicle is not a taxable benefit,” Wills tells the ADG. “I have not used the state vehicle for personal use. I’ve used the vehicle for travel to and from meetings and other events when attending in my official capacity as Speaker. I have my own vehicle for personal use.”

House staff backs up Wills in his claim saying that the his home is his place of business since he does some legislative work there and that his commutes back and forth are business use. The ADG looks at the changing explanations that the House staff has given.

Wills decision is 180 degrees different from former House Speaker and fellow Democrat Shane Broadway who told me a few weeks ago that while he was advised he could use his state provided vehicle tax free, he decided paying taxes was the right thing to do.

Wills has not been seen in public much since losing his primary race for Congress in the June runoff. However, he plans to appear with her tomorrow at a fundraiser in Conway where he will make a public endorsement.

Will he take questions from reporters? That could be interesting to watch.

Also…Democratic blogger Matt with the Blue Hog Report makes the excellent point that in order for Wills to support his claim, he would have to still have to document his mileage, noting what was personal use and what was business use.  You can’t just say it is all business use. You still have to keep a log of the mileage and purpose of each business trip. Did he do this and if so where are the records?

The Chad Causey for Congress campaign responded to a poll released last night by content partner Talk Business showing them down by 16 points by releasing a couple internal polls and more significantly by attacking their opponent Rick Crawford directly as well as Republicans in general.

First, their internal polls still show Causey trailing in one poll but by a closer margin.  A poll in August has a one point race with Causey at 40 percent and Crawford at 41 percent.  Another internal poll in July shows Causey with a slight lead with 42 percent to Crawford’s 40 percent.

Then, they go on the attack.  First, against Republicans in the First Congressional District saying that Democrats are always elected “due to the hard work of the winning candidate and the lack of a quality Republican candidate.”

This mirrors criticism from Rep. Marion Berry a few month back when he said that Democrats win because “we out work them (Republicans)  and we are smarter than they are too.”

The Causey Campaign then when on the attack directly at Causey on a buffet of issues from where he graduated high school to his 16 year old bankruptcy.

It is amusing what people will say when they get desperate.

Full memo on the jump.

UPDATE – The Crawford Campaign was swift to respond calling the attacks from Causey a “desperate…hit veterans and military families.” According to them, Causey polled if it would influence voters to know that Crawford was an “Air Force Brat.”

“This is truly sad and Chad Causey needs to apologize to veterans and their families everywhere. Rick’s father spent his career protecting this country and now Chad Causey thinks that because his son was part of a military family that should be used as some sort of political attack,” said Crawford Campaign spokesman Jonah Shumate. “That is the kind of cynical and wanton disrespect that only a Washington insider would show to military families. This is a sad development, but at the end of the day the voters of this district will understand the difference between someone who wants to serve their interests and serve this country as opposed to continuing Chad’s record of serving Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama”.

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