The Tolbert Report

John Brummett, my esteemed colleague at the Arkansas News Bureau, takes a look at push polls in his column today. His explains what a push polls is and why they yield inaccurate results then he turns toward the internet and blogs. Brummett writes…

Alas, this is one of those times when I must long for the good ol’ days.

Back before the everything-goes coverage of the Internet by which a candidate touting his own silly poll could get his assertion of vibrant viability regurgitated on a blog or a tweet, the newspapers simply would decline to take seriously any poll results asserted by candidates.

Yes, it was a better time, when responsible newspapers filtered your information.

While I agree with the perils of push polls, I am not quite ready to take the blame on this one. He mentions two push polls, one conducting by Steve Womack for Congress and one by Jim Keet for Governor. I did mention the Womack poll in passing in a somewhat snarky post called “Womack according to Womack.” I think even a causal reader of that post would realize this was an internal push poll.

And the Keet poll I did not even find worth mentioned at all. I did see it was discussed was on several main stream internet sites such as the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and the Arkansas News Bureau’s blog Politics in Arkansas.  Also, the Arkansas Times blog took it to task for being a push poll.

Maybe, just maybe, we bloggers have a bit better judgment on this sort of thing than we are often given credit.

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NBC’s “Meet the Press” confirmed today what my dedicated readers already know – that I am a true political nerd. Executive Producer Betsy Fischer asked the following trivia question yesterday on twitter: “RNC Chair under fire. Who was the 1st RNC Chair asked on MTP whether or not he would resign?”

As everyone knows, “Meet the Press” began airing on November 6, 1947. At that time, Rep. Carroll Reece from Tennessee was the RNC chairman but his successor, Rep. Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, was actually the first RNC Chairman to appear on MTP on October 31, 1948.  However, Scott was not controversial so there was no reason for him to be asked if he would resign.

This brings us to New Jersey State Assemblyman Guy Gabrielson who took over in 1949 as RNC Chairman and – as anyone who has seen New York Gov. David Paterson on SNL knows – most politicians from New Jersey are corrupt. Gabrielson was no exception and then freshman Sen. Richard Nixon, who ironically enough was making a name for himself as a reformer, called for his resignation due to Gabrielson’s involvement in a loan scandal. Gabrielson appeared on “Meet the Press” on September 30, 1951 where reporter May Craig pressed him if he was going to resign his post. Gabrielson refused and served out his term as chairman.

I am sure you all knew that but I won a MTP coffee mug for being the first to respond to Fischer on twitter with the correct answer.  And if you still don’t believe I am a political nerd, check out this article about me in Sync.

Jessica Dean has fired back up KATV’s Choose Your News segment after taking a brief break over the winter.  Yesterday, she reported on Ad Craft of Arkansas who has been making political signs in Arkansas for over fifty years.

If you are a political junkie like me, you will enjoy the segment.

Part two of my appearance this weekend on Talk Business focuses on the four Congressional Races.  For the most part, the discussion was both interesting and informative. Blake Rutherford boldy declared that Rep. Mike Ross cannot be beat, which pretty much seals his fate to now lose traction and run a horrible campaign.

Watch me discuss the way the U.S. Senate race is shaping up in Arkansas with Roby Brock on Talk Business.  Also, Blake Rutherford appears and changes the subject to the importance of everyone making a bow tie a part of their daily lives.

For extra credit, read my weekly column for the Arkansas News Bureau - “Arkansas Senate Republican Geography 101.”  It is likely to ruffle some feathers so it is probably worth your time to check it out.

If listening to me on the radio is your idea of an exciting weekend, then you are in for a weekend to remember (and also you probably need a bit more excitement in your life.)

This afternoon I will be on the Dave Elswick Show on KARN (102.9 FM) during the 5:00 hour talking with Dave about my new venture with Blake Rutherford and Roby Brock – The Arkansas Election Line.

And then on Sunday morning from 7:00 am to 9:00 am, I will be on Rutherford’s Arkansas Sunday Edition on The Buzz (103.7 FM) hanging out with other cool cats of the Arkansas political blogosphere – Lance Turner and David Kinkade. Remember to set your radio dial and turn your clock back forward on Saturday night. You will not want to miss a minute of the excitement.

The Tolbert Report is teaming up with Rock City Outfitters to give away a free T-Shirt. Come on you fiscal conservatives, you know you love free stuff as much as me.

The contest is simple. Guess the number of total U.S. Senate candidate (by party) to file in Arkansas and the closest guess wins. The tie breaker question will be the total number of Congressional Candidates (by district and party.) If it is still tied (which I would doubt) the first one with the correct answer wins. Make sure you enter a real email when you register and comment so that I can contact you to tell you that you won.

1. How many candidates will end up filing for U.S. Senate? Please list this by party – Republican, Democrat, Third Party (you can exclude Independent as they file by petitions due in May.)
2.  How many candidates will end up filing for U.S. Congress? Please list this by party (same as above) and also by district.

The winner will be announced after filing closes. Good luck!

UPDATE – Filing closes at noon and so does the contest.  Since only one person guessed, you still have a good chance to win.  To make it simplier, guess the number of Senate candidates to file by party.  Closest one wins.  First one to guess it wins in the case of a tie.

Gilbert Baker is taking his campaign for U.S. Senate to the internet with targeted ad buys on sites such as the Drudge Report.  Targeted internet ads buys are a great way to reach voters especially in a primary.

Am I biased? Absolutely!  Want to target primary voters in Arkansas? Let me know if you are interested in buying some ads to appear on the Tolbert Report.  And in the meantime, click on one of the fine sponsors who already have.

This Sunday on Talk Business, Roby Brock discussed Arkansas politics with your favorite Arkansas blogger (no, not Max Brantley you jerks, me.) We looked at the Republican Senate race and discussed whether frontrunner Rep. John Boozman can avoid a runoff and if Gilbert Baker or Jim Holt has the best chance to make the runoff with him. We also discussed the craziness of the three open Congressional races and how it will shake out as well as the boring fiscal session.

Watch it. Discuss it. And of course, tell me how great I am.

I often disagree with Max Brantley but never more so than today! He cites a poll today that purports to show that Republicans are Colts fans and Democrats are Saints fans. Poppycock!

My family at least plans to join in with Who Dat Nation this Sunday in cheering on the Saints. I admit to being late to the party. My parents moved to New Orleans about three years ago and have converted me into a Saints/Cowboys fan. I actually got to go to my first Saints game this past December in which they blew it at the end to the Bucks.

Anyway, for the record on this issue, there is bipartisan Arkansas blogosphere support for the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. If you don’t believe me, come out to Lugi’s in Bryant where I will be cheering them on with my college buddy Mark Darr who is running for Lieutenant Governor.

Who Dat!