The Tolbert Report

The reality is that for as long as Arkansas has had two parties, Arkansans have voted Democrat by default unless a Republican has given them a good reason to vote otherwise.  However, a poll released by Gallup shows this trend could be changing.

The Gallup poll shows that 41% of Arkansans currently identify themselves as Republicans while 39% say they are Democrats.  In 2009, these numbers were very different with 37% identifying with Republicans and 47% with Democrats.

“This poll further illustrates that Arkansans are rejecting the liberal Obama-Reid-Pelosi agenda, and are tired of the good ole boy network in Arkansas,” said Arkansas GOP Executive Director Chase Dugger. “The people of Arkansas have turned to our party for leadership, ethics reform and transparency in government, and we will continue working tirelessly to ensure conservative victory in November.”

These type of polls are often referred to as generic polls and demonstrate positive signs for Arkansas Republicans. However, we all know that people do not vote generically.  This will give Republicans candidates an advantage over previous years, they will still have to convince voters that they will do the best job for the office they are seeking and that they have the best ideas.

Also, I would anticipate this generic advantage helping the most in the down the ballot races where neither candidate is well known.