The Arkansas Election Line: U.S. Senate Race “Leans Republican”
The Arkansas Election Line, a joint project of the Tolbert Report, Talk Business with Roby Brock, and Blake’s Think Tank with Blake Rutherford, kicks off this morning with a look at what promises to be one of the premier races in the country this election cycle, the U.S. Senate race. We have rated this race “Leans Republican” for the general election and have given the edge to Rep. John Boozman in the Republican primary and Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary, although we have both races only in the “leans” column at this time.
The Republican Senate Primary has the largest field in history of Arkansas with eight candidates making it an uphill battle for anyone to get a 50 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff election; however Congressman John Boozman has a clear advantage both in position and in geography. As the incumbent Congressman from the Third Congressional District, he holds the largest name recognition of anyone else in the field. In addition, his home district typically makes up the largest portion of the turnout in the Republican Primary. Also, if this race does go to a runoff, then the Third Congressional Republican Primary with eight candidates will likely be in a runoff as well and will only increase his advantage in that contest. The other thing to watch for is the contest for second place which almost anyone could win with the vote split between so many candidates, each one with some degree of a following, but former State Sen. Jim Holt and State Sen. Gilbert Baker seem to both have the best chance of pulling this off with Curtis Coleman nipping at their heels.
Over on the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter surprised many two weeks ago with his announcement that he would challenge incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, along with unknown Democrat D.C. Morrison. So far, Halter has run a smart campaign with his outsider, “man of the people” strategy that has worked well for him in past. We did rate this race “Leans Lincoln” but as it develops, I believe Halter has a realistic chance of pulling off an upset victory.
However, overall it appears more than likely that Democrat voters will stick with who they know and nominate Sen. Lincoln as their candidate for the third time. If this is the case and if it results in a general election match-up with Rep. Boozman, I see this coming down to a referendum on Sen. Lincoln and unless the political winds shift dramatically, she will have a very difficult time holding her seat.
For more analysis, check out what Roby Brock and Blake Rutherford have to say. And check back tomorrow as we all take a look at the race for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District.
Tags: 2010 Candidates
March 15th, 2010 at 9:55 am
Odd reasoning here….
First, I would like to see the poll showing Boozman with the highest “name recognition”. The only poll I’ve seen on that subject had Holt out front, leading even Lincoln.
Second, every geographical advantage here granted to Boozman equally applies to Holt.
Third, his money gives him no advantage over Baker.
The dirty little (not so)secret is that Boozman’s only real advantage(though significant) is his support from Washington & RNC insiders. This assures that anytime he pays for a poll or makes a move and every time this senate is covered, he is featured on RNC Buddy, Roger Ailes’ FoxNews. Although this is a considerable advantage in the primary, his insider ties & insider votes will be a major handicap in the general given the current political climate.
March 15th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Boozman voted for TARP, Baker is a tax and spend RINO (look up his record because it IS true), and Holt is nothing more than a political opportunist with an ego comparative with Barack Hussein Obama. This is his third time at a political race which he will lose. With the other candidates in the race, particularly Curtis Coleman, Holt doesn’t stand a chance. It really is a race between Coleman, Boozman, and Baker. The other candidates don’t stand a chance.
March 15th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
What are Curtis’ qualifications?
We know he speaks well. He even says the right things.
We know he has been / or is in private industry.
We know he was a man of the cloth.
Has his metal been tested in any previous work life where he was put in such a position and passed the test.
I haven’t heard yet.
We know he was Huck’s campaign mgr for us senate in 1992.
Where has Coleman been load tested?
Where has Coleman succeeded under load?
Where has Coleman failed under load?
How he does under load will tell how he will do under load in DC?
The US Senate is not the place to show up training pants.
Coleman better have some significant successes in his previous record that warrant voter trust in DC.
I have not heard the full story on Curt yet.
Please walk me through his business, and personal story so I can better understand why you are so willing to give him a 6 year trial period to see how he will perform in DC.
Will he perform on the issues the way he is campaigning on issues? Please help me understand your thinking here.
March 15th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Robert, we don’t want a DC insider or career politician as Senator. Curtis has actually had to make a payroll and cover his employees’ health insurance. NONE of the candidates in the race has had to do that. Wise up, dude.
March 15th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Personally, I would gamble on an outsider with no record if I had no one to support with an acceptable record, but that is not the case. Besides, Coleman’s marital infidelities would make him a huge target if he ever became a serious contender, which he isn’t.
March 15th, 2010 at 4:29 pm
I am just asking the questions about Curtis. Great Guy. Great Speaker. Likeable. But the voters need to know the answers to these questions.
I just don’t want it to be 1994 all over again where the republicans take over and the bulk of the guys/gals sent to DC cave and fold / vote opposite of campaign promises. Government kept growing and we are stuck with more of the same only worse except for very few.
We and the country don’t have six more years to see if the guy we send up there will vote the way he said he would. And will be a fighter pushing the conservative agenda. Curtis is an unknown in this regard.
Boozman had to make payroll and provide insurance to his employees(85 per him) & 85,000 patients(per him). He campaigned as a conservative. Yet as you said did not vote as one. His votes on TARP being a republican paved the way for more porkulus / “stimulus” and more nationalization of the auto industry, the student loan industry, ad nauseum………..
The ability to make payroll obviously does not translate to passing the load test in DC or LR.
NoMore, the only candidate with no private sector experience is Baker. All the others at some point in time have done that and even at the executive / ownership level.
March 15th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
Coleman’s “infidelities” aren’t what alot of people like to exaggerate them to be although it gives other contenders a distinct advantage to use against him to those not informed of all the info. Boozman and Baker have their major flaws too. Just like NomoreCommies Said, “Boozman voted for TARP, Baker is a tax and spend RINO, and Holt is nothing more than a political opportunist.” They’re as dirty as they come. Look into their past voting records, it’ll make your head explode! Boozman refused to listen to his constituents.9 to 1 told him to vote “NO” on TARP but he asked friends from other states what he should do.Do you want him leading you as a Senator? He’s as bad as Lincoln, only she wears a dress. Coleman is a good man and deserves to be recognized as a challenger.
March 16th, 2010 at 12:39 am
Jim Holt has had to make a payroll before; I should know because I worked for him during and after the ice storm last year. Having personally met all the candidates in this race I’ll say I like some more then others, but none is more humble a man then Jim.
If you want to talk my number is 479-595-2242 I’ll debate anybody about why Jim is the best candidate in this race.
Clint
March 16th, 2010 at 8:05 am
Has anyone seen the latest report over at Arkansas Watch on Boozman’s taxpayer-funded travel?? All I can say is WOW!!! If it was any other candidate they would be finished…. as it is, well, it will still be damaging in this political environment.
Check it out: http://arkansaswatch.blogspot.com/2010/03/arkansas-traveller-boozman-junkets.html#links
March 16th, 2010 at 10:13 am
You do realize that that was a NATO trip and he is on the Foreign Relations committee right?
March 16th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Which trip was that Brett?
or are you talking about all 48 trips mentioned in the link are all NATO trips?
Please clarify / substantiate for us.
I think he was actually looking for the United States Constitution and a documented copy of the Republican Party Platform on those 48 trips.
He later found both after completing all 48 trips under an old tarp? and copies of the “no child left behind series” in his office back in DC.
Also found was some old campaign material from his previous campaigns documenting his hope that he would legislate for small and limited federal government, lower taxes and spending, free markets etc….. I guess he’ll either need some new copy for this year’s race or a hope that his peeps will soon forget all the above.
March 16th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
THAT trip???? As if there was only one?? Try 48. Valentine’s included.
What about the $6000+ incidentals & the $3000+ that wasn’t even documented enough to be called such?? And that’s just one trip!! Come on.