Republican Tim Griffin earned a major endorsement today from the last Republican elected to the Second Congressional District Ed Bethune. (Tommy Robinson switched mid-term.) This comes on the heels of the news that Republican heavy hitters House Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cartor, and Rep. Pete Session will be throwing their support behind Griffin at a Washington fundraiser on February 11.
The news of the possible entry of Rep. John Boozman into the U.S. Senate Race obviously has sent shock waves through the race. While many expected the only Republican member of the Arkansas Congressional delegation to clear out the crowded field, most Republican candidates are digging in for a long race.
Presumed front runner State Sen. Gilbert Baker put out a statement today denying rumors that he would move to the Second District Congressional race for the now open seat created by Rep. Vic Snyder.
“I am not running for the House of Representatives. I am, and will be, a candidate for the United States Senate,” Baker in statement today.
He went on to give what could be a preview of a line of attack against Boozman saying, “Washington D.C. is not listening to the people of Arkansas. We are tired of government bailouts and run-away spending.” Boozman has been criticized for this vote for President Bush’s TARP bill in 2008. (Full statement on the jump.)
Although no statements have been issued, sources from the campaigns of Curtis Coleman and Jim Holt have also indicated that they are in the Senate race for the long haul no matter what Boozman does. UPDATE – Tom Cox tells Roby Brock he is also staying and also takes some shots at Boozman’s TARP vote.
However, rumors are circulating that Senate candidates Buddy Rogers and State Sen. Kim Hendren are considering running for the Third Congressional District if Rep. Boozman runs for the Senate and creates the opening. Hendren’s candidacy would depend on if his brother-in-law former Congressman Asa Hutchinson gets in the race.
All this will likely come to a head by late this week or earlier next week when we find out for sure what Boozman plans to do.
Following a series of surprise announcements from Rep. Vic Snyder and Rep. Marion Berry that they will not run for re-election and from Rep. John Boozman that he likely will run for the Senate, the rumor mill has gone into high gear. The primary one that most of them swirl is the Sen. Lincoln will not run for re-election. They vary to some degree but most of them involve pressure from some groups inside the beltway, offers for a position inside the Obama Administration, and some variation of Bill Halter, Wesley Clark, and/or Mike Ross running for the open seat. The rumors were discussed by on the Arkansas Blog, the Political Buzz, and even the national conservative blog RedState. Like most rumors, I discount them until I hear it repeated from multiple places, then I finally just go ask the person the rumors involve.
Katie Laning Niebaum, spokesman for Lincoln for Senate, said about the rumors that there is “no truth to it at all.” She pointed me toward Sen. Lincoln’s activities of actively raising funds, hiring staff, and opening a campaign office as proof that there is nothing there but smoke.
This is exactly the point I made Friday when I was on KARN with Dave Elswick and was asked about the rumor. I have trouble seeing an incumbent Senator dropping out with several million dollars in the campaign war chest. Of course, I would have said the same about Rep. Snyder and Rep. Berry a couple weeks ago so what do I know.
Regardless, a couple of interesting emails promise a major campaign announcement tomorrow morning on twitter. Also, she encourages her supporters to get plugged in to her social media network on Facebook and Twitter, which inspire Rutherford to post that he is unimpressed. Her campaign manager also seems to channel the spirit of Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown this morning when he points out that when she first ran “all she had was a pick-up truck, some yard signs and flyers.”
Lately as my blog has become a bit more popular I have begun to receive unsolicited advice from different politicos and readers. I certainly appreciate constructive feedback and will be the first to admit that I have a lot to learn about writing, about politics, and about life in general. But I want to offer one warning on some of the criticism on my editorial choice of what I write about and when I post things.
I am an accountant by trade. That is how I pay the bills. If you have a great tip, please shoot me an email or give me a call if you have my number but do not write to offer your two sense about what a lousy no good some thingy something I am for not attending your event or posting about some poll you think I should have posted on.
I am earning a living folks just like most of you. This blogging thing comes second (acutally more like fifth.) Please respect that. Thanks.
Sources inside Washington confirm to the Tolbert Report that Democrat Rep. Marion Berry will retire. His announcement will come tomorrow morning. This is developing fast and I will update as information becomes available.
For more see Roby Brock on Talk Business and David Kinkade with the Arkansas Project, one of which broke the story minutes apart from each other.
Possible names for the open seat are coming in fast. On the Democrat side, Berry’s chief of staff Chad Causey and former DPA Executive Director Jason Willett are likely to get in the race. Causey looks to have Berry blessing. At the Gillett Coon Super, Berry spent about four or five minutes singing his praises. Other likely candidates include West Memphis State Rep. Keith Ingram, Paragould State Sen. Robert Thompson or former Paragould State Sen. Tim Wooldridge.
On the Republican side, Rick Crawford has been in for some time but the possibility exists for a big name such as Stanley Reed or Davy Carter (Carter tells Roby Brock he is not running) to get in now that the seat is open. Wynne native and Communications Director for Rep. Joseph Cao - Princella Smith is also considering getting in the race, sources confirm. I am also hearing State Sen. Johnny Key from Mountain Home is a real possibility.
Roby Brock has a much longer list of names.
UPDATE – The only current announced candidate Republican Rick Crawford passes along the following statement…
“I respect Congressman Berry’s decision to retire and applaud his many years of public service. I will continue to run a strong campaign based on creating jobs, reducing the deficit, and representing Arkansas values. We can’t afford Obama’s liberal agenda and I am ready to go to Washington to be a check and balance on the liberal Congress.”
UPDATE II – Based on the news of Berry’s retirement, CQPolitics changed its rating this morning from Leans Democrat to Tossup.
UPDATE III - Official statement from Rep. Berry on the jump. Berry said, “As a lifelong farmer, time has taken its toll on my health and I am no longer able to serve the district with the vitality I once possessed. Therefore, I have decided not to seek reelection in 2010.”
UPDATE IV - Also on the jump, Dustin McDaniel issues a statement in which he appears to confirm that he will seek re-election as Attorney General and will not run for the open Congressional seat saying, “I love serving Arkansas as our Attorney General, and I am hoping to be re-elected to a second term.”
As was discussed earlier, the Republican Party of Arkansas executive committee met last Friday to discuss the filing fees for candidate in the upcoming 2010 elections. They decided to raises the fees.
For U.S. Senate candidates, the fees were raised from $10,000 to $12,500 and for U.S. Congressional candidates, the fees went from $5,000 to $7,500.
For the state legislative race, the filing fees for State Senate went from $2,000 to $4,000 while the filing fees for state representatives went from $1,000 to $1,500.
Chase Dugger, RPA executive director, lets me know that all the funds will go into the respective Federal or State Victory Fund and will be used by the party specifically to assist candidates in November election not for the RPA Operating costs.
The above artwork has been floating around some Republican circles this past week. Apparently there are some people who would like to see State Rep. Davy Carter of Cabot jump into the First Congressional District Race. I am not completely sure who is behind it but the DraftDavy.com website was registered on Friday.
Carter would certainly be a formidable opponent to take on incumbent Democratic Incumbent Rep. Marion Berry who sounded less than enthusiastic about his 2010 campaign in an interview this week. Carter has impressed a lot of people with his first term in the state legislature and he is originally from the heart of the First District in Marianna. He also has strong ties to one time Senate candidate and former President of Arkansas Farm Bureau Stanley Reed who would likely lend Carter his support. However, Carter would first have to face Rick Crawford of Jonesboro in the Republican Primary.
I spoke with Carter yesterday who told me that although he was flattered by the effort, he was not planning a run “at this time.” Hmmm, sounds similar to Rep. Berry’s statement earlier this week that he was planning to run “at this time.” If the rumors of Rep. Berry’s retirement turn out to be true, could Carter jump in the race? We will see.
UPDATE - Roby Brock of Talk Business chases down even more rumors on his blog, included one I have heard as well that Sen. Blanche Lincoln might be looking for a graceful exit. Roby has more contact on that side than I do so I will refer you to his blog for those rumors.
UPDATE II – Rep. Carter sends along the following statement to Brock (who appartently is Carter’s go to guy for breaking news)
“I will not be entering the 2010 race for Congress. Although I sincerely appreciate the encouragement, I am committed to my role at Home Bancshares (Centennial Bank), raising my young children, and serving my constituents in the Arkansas House of Representatives.”
A couple quick notes on some items I have not had time to get to today, the Arkansas House of Representatives Speakers election and yet another Senate poll with weak numbers for Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
It was reported earlier by me and others that the Arkansas House of Representative Speakers election would be held on March 24. Officially, this was correct; however, according to my discussion today with House Parliamentarian Tim Massanelli, odds are this will not be how it plays out. The fiscal session is expected to go smoothly and actually end early on March 2 with adjournment sine die on March 9. All this assumes that the session does in fact go smoothly and both chambers approve adjournment on schedule. If that happens, then most likely the House will decide to caucus on March 9 and elect the new speaker. The two likely candidates appear to be Rep. Robert Moore (D- Arkansas City) and Rep. Johnnie Roebuck (D-Arkadelphia.)
The 
other note comes from the home to my weekly columns – the Arkansas News Bureau, which released yet another Senate poll showing weak number from Sen. Lincoln. In each match up, Lincoln hovered around the 40 percent mark, with Gilbert Baker and Jim Holt both pulling in 43 percent while the remaining candidates were either at 39 or 38 percent. The Holt Campaign celebrated this as a victory showing a separation from the field and pointing toward their six point margin over Lincoln as the biggest.
A hat tip to them for that but I would caution that the race is still pretty much a dead heat. The other poll released by ANB showed very low name recognition for all Republican candidates including Holt who did the best probably due to his previous statewide races in 2004 and 2006. All nine announced candidates still have a lot of work to do to introduce themselves to the voters. No matter how low Lincoln’s poll numbers might be, if the voters don’t know who you are, you will lose.
This
might be one of reasons that Rep. John Boozman is looking like he will enter the Senate race by the end of next week. I would not be surprised to see this announcement accompanied by endorsements from some but certainly not all of the nine current Senate candidates.
I could be wrong and the election still has to play out but I honestly cannot see a scenario where Rep. Boozman does not win the primary if he enters the race.
Almost ten months ago, I mentioned that Rogers mayor Steve Womack was considering a run for U.S. Senate as a Republican but Womack has stayed off the radar to some degree since then. But today his name has resurfaced as a potential candidate for the 3rd Congressional District if the incumbent Rep. John Boozman jumps into the Senate race and there is even the possibly that Womack might re-consider the Senate race.
“If Rep. Boozman runs for the U.S. Senate, then I am all but guaranteed to run for Congress,” Womack tells the Tolbert Report. Womack told me that he is concerned about the direction of the country, just like millions of people across the nation. He said that his interest is similar to his reasons for running for mayor of Rogers back in 1998 when he was concerned about the direction of the Rogers city government.
Womack also left open the possibility that he would run for Senate if Rep. Boozman did not. But as for Congress, it appears if the seat is open, Womack is in.
Reports are that former Congressman Asa Hutchinson is also considering running for the possible open seat and has been making phone call to see if there is support. In addition, State Sen. Kim Hendren has been mentioned to drop out of the U.S. Senate race and run for Congress, provided his brother-in-law Asa does not.
Multiple Arkansas Republican insiders are a buzzing the evening with the news that 3rd District Congressman John Boozman is considering running for the U.S. Senate. Sources tell me that the chances of him running are “more than likely.”
At this point, the news is rumor however this move by Rep. John Boozman would dramatically change the shape of the Republican race. Rep. Boozman is currently the only Republican representing Arkansas in Washington. His entry would bring someone with instant name recognition particularly in the all-important northwest Arkansas for the Republican Primary.
If this pans out - and I believe that it will – then this raises all sorts of questions particularly for the Third District. On the Republican side, the only announced candidate left will be retired Air Force General Bernard Skotch. We are most certainly likely to see more Republicans jump in but who. It is possible that northwest Arkansas Republican Senate candidates Jim Holt, Kim Hendren, and/or Buddy Rogers may switch to the open Congressional. There are also a plethora of current and former state legislators that would certainly take a look at the seat as well. It is likely we would see a similar circumstance currently facing the Democrats in the 2nd Congressional District, as there is a scramble to find a candidate due to the last minute opening.
UPDATE – The Arkansas Democrat Gazette confirms the news as well. Rep. Boozman tells them, “A number of people have asked me to really sit down and look at this race in terms of who would be the strongest candidate and whether that’s something I would consider. I have told them that I would step back and take a look.”
UPDATE II 
- Jim Holt’s Campaign Consultant Rick Shaftan wastes no time taking some early shots at Rep. Boozman. “Will Gilbert Baker jump to the AR-2 race with Rep. TARP Boozman threatening Baker’s Establishment support? He’s got to be thinking about it,” asks Shaftan.
UPDATE III - Roby Brock of Talk Business has a post up with a who’s who 
of Third Congressional District Republicans. The biggest name on the list by far is former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, who is currently out of office and practicing law in Arkansas.
Brock reports that Hutchinson is making calls to gauge support. (UPDATE – Multiple sources are confirming this to be the case.) But two big notes on this. First, if Asa gets in, than the other 23 names on the list will probably not stand a chance in a primary due to Hutchinson’s strong name recognition. Second, the fact that Asa is making calls and considering running solidifies the likelihood that Rep. Boozman will get in the Senate race.
Check Roby’s post for the whole list and if you are a Republican in AR3 you are probably on it. If you have more information, send it my way.
Developing fast…
