The Tolbert Report

Sen. Blanche Lincoln just released her public schedule for next week where she will be traveling Arkansas to talk with constituents. I wonder if health care reform will come up.

Full schedule on the jump but I could not help but notice the Gillett Coon Supper on Friday, January 8. This is an Arkansas tradition that I have yet to experience. Last year my own State Sen. Shane Broadway promised to take me to Gillett for the full experience. I have a message over to him to see if his offer is still on for next week. If so, get ready for a full Tolbert Report on the ritual.

UPDATE - Still working out the details but it looks like it is on for me to make the pilgrimage to Gillett.  Sen. Broadway says the offer is still good.  I can’t wait to taste my first coon.

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Republican Attorney Generals in thirteen states are threatening to sue over the recently passed Senate health care legislation. According to the AP, their major beef is the estimated $100 million pork that Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson received in exchange for his vote. I am certainly no fan of pork projects but this does seem to be somewhat politically motivated. But I am such a cynic, what do I know.

Regardless, several readers have asked if our own Democratic Attorney General Dustin McDaniel planned to join with this group. He did after all join with several conservative attorney generals earlier this month in a Second Amendment gun rights case before the Supreme Court. So I asked.

His communication director Gabe Holmstrom let me know that the Attorney General has not been contacted by any of the attorney generals and asked to join. “We are aware of the issue and will monitor it as the bill makes its way through the process,” said Holmstrom. Maybe one these guys should give McDaniel a call.

Holmstrom also let me know that he is leaving the attorney general’s staff to pursue other plans. He would not let on as to the specifics but it sounds like he will be joining up with one of the 2010 political campaigns. Any guess which one? He says we will find out next week. (Update – An informed tipster speculates that Gabe will be heading up opposition research for the DSCC in Arkansas.  With eight candidates to research, he should be plenty busy.)

UPDATE - While not joining the lawsuit, McDaniel does say he believes the provision for Nebraska should be removed. 

“Although such threats make for good politics, I do not believe that the states would have a winning lawsuit based on what I know at this time,” said McDaniel in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “However, I strongly agree that the Nebraska Compromise should be removed in the Conference Committee, and I request your attention to this matter.”

Full release on the jump…

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Fresh off the mission field in India, minister Mark Vaughan is considering jumping into politics by making a run at the Congressional Race for the First District in eastern Arkansas. Vaughan tells me that he is “seriously considering” joining the race and has spoken to the only announced Republican candidate Rick Crawford about this but that his final decision will probably come sometime in January.

Vaughan is from Wheatley and is on stateside assignment with the Southern Baptist IMB. He tells me that he has been speaking to groups in the district and is trying to gauge the level of support he will receive if he gets in. He is hearing a lot of displeasure for the current representation who feel that Democratic incumbent Rep. Marion Berry is “a rubber stamp for (Speaker) Pelosi and (President) Obama.”

Currently Jonesboro businessman and farm reporter Rick Crawford is the only announced Republican candidate. Crawford announced back last spring so he has already received a lot of traction which will be difficult for Vaughan to overcome. The Republican will likely face Rep. Berry in November, who has not officially announced but is certainly expected to run for re-election next year.

Rep. Ed Garner tries his hand at a funny video on the Arkansas Senate Republican Primary.  It is pretty good.  Maybe Ed should start a blog.

Jim Holt has been dancing around whether he will run for U.S. Senate for the last couple months. He held a fundraiser tonight in northwest Arkansas at Mad Pizza for $100 a head and Ruth’ Chris Steakhouse for $1,000 a head. Reports from Mad Pizza are that around 150 people turned out for the event. But no announcement as to whether Holt will jump in the U.S. Senate race. Maybe he is saving it for the $1,000 folks down the street. But I am told “Holt for U.S. Senate” signs were on display.

I will let you know if I hear anything else.

UPDATE - Roby Brock gives us his high flutin’ political analysis and saying that it look like Holt should have raised enough to require him to finally file.  Brock also says 11 people prefered steak to pizza. 

My math puts last night’s total around $20,000.

UPDATE II - Photographer Butterflykiss Portraits posts several pictures from the event at Ruth’s Chris via Facebook.  Included the one above. H/t Arkansas Watch.

Max Brantley reports the rumor I have been hearing for about a week. David Sanders is considering running for state representative in district 31. Sanders has been one of the leading conservative voices in Arkansas with his column for the Arkansas News Bureau as well as a plethora of other media outlets. When Stanley Reed announced he was running for U.S. Senate a couple weeks ago, the biggest surprise was that Sanders would be his campaign manager. A week later, Reed withdrew for health reasons and Sanders was out of a job.

The talk of Sanders fate has been the past time of Republicans over the past week. Partly because people are honestly concerned about a friend who lost his job right before Christmas and partly because people love to gossip. The buzz that has sparked the most interest has been the encouragement Sanders has received from some to run for state representative in district 31, which stretches from west Little Rock to east Hot Springs Village with a lot of rural Saline County in between.

This seat is being vacated by State Rep. Dan Greenberg who is running for State Senate. Republican business owner John Parke has announced for the seat but many are concerned about Parke’s previous weak positions on core social conservative issues such as abortion. I am told that a decision has not yet been made by Sanders but that amoung those encouraging him to run are several former holders of the state.

Once again 2010 looks to be a very fun year.

UPDATE – John Parke gave me a call to let me know that his views on abortion have changed since he ran back in 2004. He tells me spiritual maturity has caused him to rethink his position and he is now decidedly pro-life. Some might say it is an election year conversation before running in a more conservative district but for what it is worth he sounded sincere.

As for a possible primary challenge from Sanders, he tells me he definitely prefers to run unopposed but will not shy away from a spirited primary.

Much of the attention in the Republican Senate Primary has been focused presumed frontrunner State Sen. Gilbert Baker, former State Sen. Jim Holt, and Stanley Reed who dropped out last week. Curtis Coleman has also gotten some attention with his strong second place showing at the RPA straw poll. However, beneath the surface, State Sen. Kim Hendren has been quietly holding pace.

Following the straw poll a well-connected Arkansas politico was discussing the race with me. “There is still one huge wild card in this race,” he said holding up a Kim Hendren for U.S. Senate bumper sticker. “If he decides to pour some money into this race, he could easily win the primary.”

Another Republican official disagreed. “Hendren is an engineer,” he said with a smile. “He is not going to pour a few million dollars of his own money into a race unless he knows he will win.” However, just last week Hendren put out word that he was writing his campaign a check for $200,000.

Now Hendren’s campaign is leaking an internal poll that shows a neck and neck race between Hendren and Baker. According to a poll they commissioned from Encompass among 700 likely voters, Hendren has 33% support while Baker had 32%. All other candidates were under 17%.

The survey methodology said this it took “geographic location” into account. This means the survey likely polled heavily into Benton County, which is Hendren’s home county. In past elections, Benton County has accounted for around 25% of the Republican Primary turnout.

If this trend holds true in this next election cycle and Hendren decides to pony up a few million dollars of his own funds, then he could turn from wild card into nominee. However, if follow Benton County resident Jim Holt gets in the race and raises enough money to compete, then the two of them may split the Northwest Arkansas vote, clearing the field for Gilbert Baker who is likely to have a strong showing in central Arkansas.

If you having been paying attention to the Senate health care debate over the passed few days, you will get why this video is both relevant and funny.

h/t liberal blog Daily Kos whom I disagree with but must concede they have a point.

I thought this tongue in cheek news video from Hotline TV on the Senate Divas of the week was pretty funny.  According to them, Sen. Blanche Lincoln was the worst of the Senate Divas.  What does that mean? Watch the show and find out.

By the way, today is December 23, the traditional day to celebrate Festivus. So Happy Festivus everyone and just know that I got a lot of problems with you people!

John Brummett has gotten jiggy with the blogging lately with an interesting post yesterday on the lack of pork Sen. Blanche Lincoln brought home in the health care bill. He looks at whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid indirectly threw Lincoln under the bus with his compliments to the skills of Sen. Mary Landrieu and Sen. Ben Nelson to negotiate some pork for their home states while saying if swing vote Senators did not get these deals, “it does not speak well for them.” But Brummett really focuses more about the hypocritical Republican response to the lack of pork asking, “How can the Republicans criticize the deal-making on one hand and then trash a senator who didn’t make a deal on the other?”

I actually agree with Brummett on this one. I obviously am no fan of the health care bill but a few million dollars for Arkansas would not have changed my mind. I am certainly not thrilled about my taxes going up to pay for the pork Sen. Nelson brought home for Nebraska.

But even more interesting though is the epilogue to Brummett’s post where Sen. Reid himself called Brummett to clarify what an important role Lincoln has played in the health care debate and how she put the interest of the country first instead of just Arkansans. She also looked out for Wal-Mart, Reid tells Brummett.

It seems to me that if an incumbent Senator up for reelection next year hurriedly implores the Majority Leader to call an columnist back home about a blog post he has written, then that Senator is highly concerned on her reelection campaign.

Brummett follows up his blog post with a column today on what a genius Lincoln is for the way she played the health care debate down the middle. As I said in my column on Sunday for the Arkansas News Bureau, this looks a bit more like professional wrestling to me.

UPDATE - No sooner did I hit post, then I get an press release from the National Republican Senatorial Committee on this very subject.

“With all due respect, let’s get this straight: After providing her critical 60th vote to move Harry Reid’s bill forward, Blanche Lincoln announces she is planning to vote on final passage in favor of a costly and contentious bill that provides unequal special favors to people living in other states – special favors that will be paid for by families and seniors in Arkansas,”  said NRSC Press Secretary Amber Wilkerson Marchand. “Then, when concerns are raised, she calls in and seeks protection from the very party leader who is responsible for cutting these backroom deals at Arkansas’ expense in the first place. That is remarkable.”