The Tolbert Report

If my email inbox is any indication, then tomorrow’s vote on the health care bill is huge. Democrat Majority leader Harry Reid has scheduled a test vote for his health care bill for 7:00 CST Saturday night. The bill was unveiled late Wednesday night. The Saturday night vote is the earliest a procedural vote can take place in accordance with the agreement to allow the bill to be posted for 72 hours before any vote takes place.

The Saturday night vote is the vote to begin debate and will require 60 votes to proceed. In a technical sense, this is not the final vote with two more key votes ahead. The Senate rules require 60 votes to begin debate on a bill and the 60 votes once again to end debate and bring the bill up for a final vote. These are the two most critical votes because the final passage of the bill only requires 50 votes which would allow Vice President Biden to cast the tiebreaker vote for the bill.

The importance of Saturday’s vote cannot be overstated. Roll Call cited a study from the Congressional Research Service showing that when a bill passes the initial cloture vote, then the Senate passes the final version 97.6 percent of the time. The talking points from Sen. Reid are that this is merely a vote to move the bill to the Senate floor and allow debate to begin. However, make no mistake that if the motion to proceed passes tomorrow night, the Senate will be well on its way to the final passage.

Messages are coming from National Right to Life to Obama’s Organizing for America and everyone in between urging Arkansans to call Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s office to vote for or against (depending on the group) the motion to proceed. Sen. Lincoln is considered the swing vote for tomorrow. Her vote will likely decide if the health care bill will fail or live to fight another day.

What will she do? My gut tells me she likely will dance to Harry Reid’s tune tomorrow night. Back home she will have Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter greeting needy Arkansans in front of TV cameras at his free health clinic in Little Rock while mulling a bid to challenge her in the primary. And in Washington she has had several private one on one arm twisting session with President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton, as well as Sen. Reid only minutes before releasing the final bill. Her spin will be the party line that she is only moving the debate forward, but I doubt Arkansans will be fooled.

Then again, she could prove me wrong. I hope she does. Give her call and let know what you think – 202-224-4843.

UPDATE – The leftie blogs are spinning this vote as hard as they can. I almost feel bad for my friend Blake Rutherford as well as the good folks at the Arkansas Blog for having to tow the party line on this one. Both are pointing to a push poll from a group called “Health Care for America NOW!” (any bias there?) that asked the following question:

“In the Senate, before a bill can be voted on, there must be vote to allow it to be debated. Regardless of whether you support or oppose the health insurance reform plan itself, do you believe that it should be debated on the floor of the Senate?”

When asked this, 84% said yes and 11% said no. Blake and Max point to this to say Sen. Lincoln should vote for the motion to proceed tomorrow night. I don’t know where the two of them have been the last few month, but I think we have had quite a bit of debate of health care.  Can anything more really be said? 

Arkansans made it pretty clear in the Zogby poll released yesterday that they have heard enough. In this poll, 64% of Arkansans said they oppose the bill and only 29% supporting it. Regardless of the spin, Sen. Lincoln’s vote tomorrow is her opportunity to vote with the people of Arkansas and stop the bill or give in to her party bosses and dance to their music.

UPDATE II - Arkansans may not know how Sen. Lincoln will vote but Democrat Minority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin let it slip this morning to reporters that Sen. Reid does.  Did Sen. Lincoln tell Sen. Reid what her vote will be when she meet with him earlier this week?

Her spokewomen Katie Laning says not so fast. “No other Senator speaks for Senator Lincoln,” Laning tells the Tolbert Report. ”She is still reviewing the bill.”

UPDATE III – If this was not so serious, it would be funny. Durbin must have gotten a phone call from the higher ups because he is quickly backpeddling on his earlier comments, releasing the following statement:

“In a conversation with reporters earlier today, some of my remarks regarding Senator Lincoln were unclear and have been incorrectly interpreted. Sen. Lincoln has not yet signaled her intention as to how she will vote on tomorrow’s cloture motion. I have worked with Sen. Lincoln for years and know that she will reach a decision that is best for her constituents, her state and the nation.”