Another Poll Shows Lincoln Trailing Baker and Reed
Public Policy Polling has yet another poll showing Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in serious trouble. In hypothetical match-ups with Republican opponents, Lincoln trails state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 43% to 38% and former president of Arkansas Farm Bureau Stanley Reed by 42% to 39%.
But what may be even more troubling for Lincoln is her approval rating which is currently 14 points behind President Barack Obama who lost Arkansas in 2008 by 20 points. President Obama earned the approval of 41% of those surveyed while Sen. Lincoln had on 27% say they approved of her job performance.
“Blanche Lincoln may be the most endangered Democratic Senator in the country for 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s typical right now for independents to lean heavily toward the GOP but what sets Lincoln apart from other vulnerable Democrats is her lack of popularity within her own party.”
Two questions jump out to me when looking at these numbers. First, with such a horrible approval rating for Sen. Lincoln compared to other Arkansas Democrats such as a 70% approval rating for Gov. Mike Beebe, will this cause Lincoln to draw a creditable primary challenger such as Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter or State Senate Pro Temp Bob Johnson. It certainly seems that they would have a rare opportunity to take on an incumbent member of their own party.
Second, with numbers very similar to presumed Republican front runner state Sen. Gilbert Baker, will Stanley Reed throw his hat in the ring? Although Baker has a slightly larger lead compared to Reed of 5 points compared to 3 points, these comparable numbers may be enough to convince Reed that there is still an opening to jump in the race as a Republican candidate. Many expect him to make a decision before the end of the month.
This should be interesting.
Tags: 2010 Candidates
November 18th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
If Reed jumps in, I know of one Senate candidate who should drop out since his whole campaign is based upon having enough money to defeat Lincoln.
November 18th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
You know FSR, your comments sound eerily similar to a friend of mine who actually works on a Senate campaign. But I am sure no campaign worker would be so cowardly as to come on here and post annoyomous attacks on other candidates. Right?
November 18th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
There are about 5 who should drop out leaving Coleman, Baker and Reed. Baker is about more than enough money to beat Blanche he also has experience and a proven record. Im sure FSR works for a campaign but it may be that he works for Blanche. He still cannot tell me a reason to vote for anyone but Gilbert Baker he just knows how to bash him. Folks like him are a big part of the problem.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I would support Reed if he was a Republican.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Is anyone sure what Reed is? He has supported Dems for years and supported Mike Huckabee as well. I dont even know what he stands for. does anyone know what he stands for?
November 18th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Would love to see a few of these guys jump to one of the many statewide offices that are up in 2010. There are three constitutional offices that have no announced Republicans running – Secretary of State, Auditor, and Land Commissioner. Of these, Secretary of State is absolutely critical, as the next SOS, along with the Gov and AG, will be have responsibility for redistricting. We desperately need a Republican there, otherwise Beebe and McDaniel will ensure minimal legislative gains for the GOP in NW Arkansas.
The Dems will probably nominate Pulaski County Clerk O’Brien, the state coordinator for the Obama campaign.
November 18th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
I love that picture of Blanche, Lol.
November 18th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Agree with comments OzarkGOP, above. Hard to see how Reid gets through an R primary, since he has no base of support and seems (at best) like a D plant, i.e., a DIABLO. Don’t need any more of those, for sure.
November 18th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
From what I hear the Repubican party must find a candidate for Governor who can draw at least 5% of the vote or the party will loose its ballot position in the state. Jason can you check into this and let us know about it?
November 18th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
w – True except it is 3% required not 5%.
November 18th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Thanks Jason, do we have any prospect of a candidate?
November 19th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Regarding the comment about the other 5 candidates dropping out….if they have the passion for representating our state, why should they drop out. I find it very interesting that the focus continues to be on the money when I think my basset hound could beat our current Senator. I feel sure that the above mentioned candidates are fine men however, I don’t think it hurts to reiterate the fact that we currently have 7 candidates announced and yet no one has asked or scheduled a debate among the announced candidates so people can hear and see for themselves who would be our best man. Shout outs to the Coleman Campaign, the Cox Campaign, the Hendren Campaign, the Ramey Campaign, the Reynolds campaign, and the Rogers Campaign. Forget the polls what are these campaigns messages? You report…..we’ll decide.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
If you like it or not money will be the first factor in who wins. Our current Senator as you put it will be hard to beat becasue of her organizaion and her bank account. This early in an election polls have limited value. To defeat her we need a good primary but not a hurtfull one. I am sure that their weill be a debate at a later date when more people are tuned into this race. lets face facts that she will be hard to beat and it is no doable unless you can raise millions. Gilbert had a first good month lets see if he can keep it up on future reports. The others have not raised enough to run for State Representative yet so they had better step it up or they will not have enough to fight if they win. The National party will not pour money into the race if the candidate cannot prove themselves as a fundraiser. If you cannot raise money you cannot get votes it is as simple as that. If I donate money to you im committed but if not then who knows, its as simple as that. Part of a good debate is doing more than bashing the front runner. I would like to know more about the other candidates in the race. I also wish one or more of them would fill the role of running for Governor, something the party needs badly.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Thanks rawacr for the shout out! I certainly do have a passion for representing Arkansas. Our campaign continues to grow each day. In the past 30 days contacts have increased significantly. It seems the more the “other” media reports on the progress of some campaigns, the more voters look for other alternative candidates. We continue to have a positive outlook. Our core supporters are blue collar conservatives who may not be able to make large contributions, but they do vote! Also, with my family farming background, we continue to make progress in east AR. I would be honored to have your support! ramey4senate.org
November 19th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
I am extending a challenge to the other Senate campaigns here.
State Senator Kim Hendren has agreed to debate me in a series of Lincoln-Douglas style debates. Though I emailed twice and called the candidates, so far most of the other candidates have politely refused to respond. Even though on Facebook it’s open to all candidates for U.S. Senate, 34 have confirmed attendance, and 96 more said they maybe will be there.
Mayor John Gray says he won’t debate unless Senator Lincoln is there. Buddy Rogers says he’ll come if all the other Republicans come.
REALLY???
Here’s a chance to make sure the rubber meets the road. A chance to show that issues matter more than raising money from wealthy individuals and special interests. Here’s a chance to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.
So what say you :
Col. Conrad Reynolds
Fred Ramey
Tom Cox
St. Sen. Gilbert Baker
Curtis Coleman
Buddy Rogers
The first one is November 30th, with a reception from 6:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. and then debate from 7:00 – 9:00 p.m. at UALR in the DSC, Room C. It’s sponsored in part by a political science group at UALR.
So far, State Senator Kim Hendren is the only one with the character to say yes and will show up. I am the only one for the Democrats. The Green Party candidate, which I would think could appreciate the press, seems like he wants to add conditions to a display of true democracy.
There is another debate being organized at ASU and another one at U of A, Fayetteville by student groups.
This is an open challenge to all the Senate candidates.
I asked David Sanders & Pat Lynch to co-moderate. There are also professors at UALR preparing questions.
My email is drew@prittforarkansas.com to RSVP
Who will answer the call and who is just talk?
Stay tuned!
November 19th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
We love Deidr… uh, Drew.
He gives us great fodder.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Drew,
Why a candidate debate someone they’re not even running against yet? Shouldn’t they focus on debating each other first? I hope that will happen sometime.
November 19th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
aw brett! you beat me to my comment. I would not waste the energy.
November 19th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
I agree. I would love to see a debate between Drew Pritt and Blanche Lincoln. However, watching Pritt debate Kim Hendren is sort of like watching Dennis Kucinich debate Ron Paul. No offense.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
I believe ALL Senate candidates should step up and debate, instead of focusing on fundraising and pandering to special interests. Besides, it is a good testimony to where a candidate is at when you hear their stance and stop seeing R and D by their name.
November 20th, 2009 at 7:38 am
Right now as far as elections go, the only thing that matters is the R by these guys name. It is a primary. The one who best meets the republican party’s ideal should win, and I truly believe that a debate amongst them will be a good thing. A debate with an outsider, at this point, would just waste time and money.