The Tolbert Report

If the poll released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is correct, then Sen. Blanche Lincoln may have some breathing room. According to The Washington Post blog “The Fix,” the new DSCC poll show Sen. Lincoln with a lead of 50% to 37% over perceived Republican Primary frontrunner State Sen. Gilbert Baker and a lead of 51 % to 37% over State Sen. Kim Hendren.

At first glace, I am a quite skeptical of a poll conducted by a Democrat group with results so different from previous independently conducted polls, but I have contacted the DSCC to request a copy of the poll so I will reserve final judgment until I can compare the questions asked and the crosstabs. I do find it hard to believe that Sen. Lincoln has experienced such a dramatic turnaround since the Rasmussen Poll only three weeks ago which showed down from 47% preferring Baker to only 39% preferring her. If both polls are accurate, then this would mean Sen. Lincoln swung 22 points during a period when she has been heavily criticized by both sides for her role in the debate of health care reform. As Secretary of State Clinton would say, “The reports that you provide to us really require the willing suspension of disbelief.”

UPDATE (Push Poll) – In response to my request, the DSCC sent me with a one-page talking points memo (on the jump) from their consulting firm Benenson Strategy Group regarding the poll but have not responded to my repeated requests (via email, twitter, and phone) for additional information regarding what questions were asked as well as the demographic of those polled (crosstabs). It is standard for a legitimate poll to release this information to prove its reliability.

However, one Arkansan who received the call let me know how it went. They reported that the poll began by asking questions about Gilbert Baker’s “special treatment” at UCA and his character witness for a convicted rapist. Following this they asked, “knowing these things,” whether they preferred Baker or Lincoln. This was followed by similar questions for Kim Hendren discussing his “that Jews” comment.

I am still waiting for the NSCC to return my messages. If any of this is incorrect, please correct me. Otherwise, I really can’t help but conclude that this poll is a push poll and has zero creditability.  Asking negative questions about one’s opponent followed by a preferential at the end is a classic push poll technique.  If anything, it is amazing that 37% of those polled stayed on the line through all those negative questions to state their preference for the Republican candidate over Lincoln.

John Brummett, columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau, gives his take on the “push poll” in his column. In short, I am a partisan but I am right. Guilty as charged (but I would put the emphasis on the right part.)

To: DSCC
Fr: Pete Brodnitz, BSG
Re: Recent general election polling in Arkansas
Date: October 15, 2009

Overview

Despite months of attacks from both the extreme right and the extreme left, and now from the insurance industry, our most recent survey of likely Arkansas 2010 general election voters found that Senator Lincoln remains well-positioned for re-election in 2010.

Arkansas Voters Remain Frustrated With Washington, Concerned About Health Care And The Economy
A majority of Arkansas voters (52%) say things in the country are headed on the wrong track – virtually the same as in May (52%) in polling commissioned by the DSCC.
The most important issue for Arkansas voters currently is health care – 64% say this is a top issue for the Senator to be focused on. However, the second-most important issue is the economy (43%), which is down only slightly from May (49%).

Lincoln Remains in Good Standing With Arkansas Voters Despite Months Of National Attacks
Despite the partisan attacks that have been made against Senator Lincoln in recent months, she remains in good standing with Arkansas voters:
 50% of likely voters say they have a favorable view of Senator Lincoln;
 72% of voters say Lincoln stands up for what she believes in, and 68% of voters say she gets things done for Arkansas.

Lincoln Leads GOPers Baker and Hendren By More Than 10%
Because of these positive views of Senator Lincoln, and despite voters’ concerns about the issues like health care and the economy, Senator Lincoln currently enjoys leads of more than 10% over each of her best-known Republican challengers, Kim Hendren and Gilbert Baker:

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 703 interviews statewide with likely general election voters October 5-7, 2009. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.70%. The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years.

Tags: 2010 Candidates