First Quarter Numbers May Reveal Baker and Griffin as Frontrunners (UPDATE)
Yesterday was an important deadline in the two high profile Republican primary races in Arkansas. September 30 was the last day that candidates can report contributions received for their quarterly financial reports which are due with the FEC by October 15. At this point in the game, fundraising is one of the few things that provide a gauge as to who are the frontrunners. And it is no surprise that the two campaigns that are expected to have the strongest numbers have already had it begin to leak out.
Obviously, the most high profile Republican primary in Arkansas is currently the seven way race to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln for the U.S. Senate. John Brummett wrote in his column today, “It now appears that Baker will report raising somewhere between $350,000 and $500,000 in September.” (See update – It is over $500,000.) This would be a number that I doubt any of the other six candidates can come close to. The one exception could possibly be Curtis Coleman who had a $500 a person fundraiser hosted in Gov. Mike Huckabee’s personal residence. However, his campaign will not disclose how much was raised from this event so it might not be as much as one would expect.
(UPDATE – Tom Cox lets me know his fundraising is in the mid $30,000 range. I have asked all the Senate candidates and will report their numbers if they respond.)
The Second Congressional has quickly become a primary to watch as well with Tim Griffin, David Meeks, and Scott Wallace competing for the chance to take on Rep. Vic Snyder. Sources from within the national Republican Party are telling me that Tim Griffin 
has raised over $100,000 within only 10 days of fundraising between his formal announcement and the end of the quarter. David Meeks tells me today his fundraising will come in around $5,000. No word yet from Scott Wallace who has taken to Facebook to introduce himself. (UPDATE – I spoke with Wallace who said that he has not kicked off his fundraising efforts yet but he expects to get fully engaged this quarter.)
A much clearer picture of both these races will develop when the financial reports are filed with the FEC by October 15. Granted this will only reveal the scoreboard after the first inning in a nine inning game but look for both Gilbert Baker and Tim Griffin to have a significant edge at this early stage.
UPDATE - A press release from Griffin’s campaign this morning let’s me know that he has raised over $130,000.
At the same time, sources within Wallace’s campaign tell me that they are confidence they can also raise enough money to compete and expect this quarter to be a strong one. Wallace has recruited former state representative and Huckabee advisor Ted Thomas to serve as his campaign consultant.
UPDATE II - Baker’s Campaign tweets that they are “pleased to announce that we raised just over $500,000 in Sept.”
Tags: 2010 Candidates
October 1st, 2009 at 11:01 am
I don’t see how you can say Baker has a “significant edge” when we do not know anyone else’s numbers yet.
October 1st, 2009 at 11:27 am
Nicholas – You are right. We don’t know yet which is why I said “look for…” It’s a prediction. If I am wrong, I will certainly admit it.
FYI – If any candidates have numbers they want me to included, please email me jason@tolbertreport.com
October 1st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
It is a no-brainer that Baker would have the most amount of money. He called some of his friends/donors, and they maxed out with him. The first few days he sat back and made calls. These donors more than likely maxed out. What the more interesting number to look at will be the number of individual contributors. Gilbert has not been out meeting people. The other 47 have. I know Curtis & Conrad have been all over the state meeting people while Sen. Baker has been making calls to his donors.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:19 pm
47! WOW! I don’t think it is that many yet. Good spin AR.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Like my father used to say, put up or shut up. Just putting up a website does not make you a serious candidate. I think Baker and Coleman are the only real candidates in this race. We will see if Coleman can put up some decent numbers. I am so tired of every dick, jane and harry thinking they are one election away from being the next US Senator. Either you have a great network and resume to call on to help raise money, or you do not. Listen everyone wants to play quarterback, but when you 5′3 and 120 pounds, you are not going to play varsity. Join reality, it will make your life much easier in the long run.
October 1st, 2009 at 12:49 pm
When will our election process become more about the direction our nation is going, rather than who can raise the most money. When money gets involved, there are always favors that have to be “paid back”, I think I would rather vote for the person who has character rather than a large checkbook……The best form of “undistorted” communication occurs when you are speaking to someone face to face, rather than hearing a “I am so and so and I have approved this message” Baloney!!!
October 1st, 2009 at 1:25 pm
[...] The Tolbert Report) Share and [...]
October 1st, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I am kind of with AR. David Meeks may not have all the money behind him but he has ALOT of support. It seems like he is at every event that I attend. He certainly has my vote. I have yet to meet Wallace or Grifin.
October 1st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
I think it would be safe to say that Gilbert will by far have raised the most money and frankly he should be able to. He is the only one who is a sitting state senator and just finished a race in which large sums were raised so he has a database which by far is the hardest and most important thing to have when raising money. I think as time progresses Baker will not be as hot as he is right now. Coleman seems to be the one with the best chance against Blanche, and I bet his numbers are not super high either in this quarter, but I imagine that they will get better. Cox is probably hit the top of where he is headed and Hendren doesn’t raise money.
As for the straw poll, what a joke. I could win it if I bought enough tickets, this is a lame attempt for the party to raise some money. Sure it makes for fun chatter on blogs but it is not indicative of the electorate. In Iowa , it has a different meaning, (but still not much) mainly because 10’s of 1000’s of people vote, not less than 10% of 1 percent of republicans in a democrat leaning state.
October 1st, 2009 at 1:54 pm
It looks like the Curtis Coleman people are taking a page out of the Trevor Drown playbook and trying to put his name as close to Gilbert Romne… err Baker as possible.
The hardest working man in Arkansas right now is Reynolds.
October 1st, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Who says I am a curtis person, I have not made up my mind completely yet, but yes I am leaning to coleman. I completely forgot about reynolds and he may be a good candidate too, I do know that GB would have to have some redeeming qualities surface before I would support him in the primary.
October 1st, 2009 at 2:30 pm
James,
Well said.
I’m with you on the GB thing.
October 1st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Just say NO to Baker. Anyone who would oppose the Employee Free Choice Act should not be elected in Arkansas. Including Blanche!
October 1st, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Bosco, I think you are at the wrong blog buddy.
October 1st, 2009 at 3:04 pm
yeah, I don’t think that is the reason I wouldn’t support GB. In fact, I don’t think I would support anybody who is in favor of card check, nope I wouldn’t.
October 1st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
I am with james. Senator Baker has just finished a huge reelection, and has a large donor base from that. I also agree with FS that Conrad Reynolds is working very hard. I still want to see the number of individual donors.
October 1st, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Conservatives have a strong field in both races. All of the candidates opposing the two incumbents will have a good future in this State.
The fundraising numbers – as expected – will show some separation. But, as former Sen. Holt showed, money is not everything. Groundgame and grassroots, combined with fundraising, that is everything.
The real question should be, among those who raise significant amounts of money, which of them will knock on the most doors, and when will they start?
October 2nd, 2009 at 10:10 am
[...] Money: OCD blogger Jason Tolbert has early look at Q3 fundraising numbers for several GOP candidates, including Tim Griffin, Gilbert Baker and Tom Cox. (The Tolbert [...]
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:11 pm
I’m tired of the media deciding who will win elections. What about the other candidates running for Senate? Fred Ramey is a great guy, he’s a low key, down to earth guy and would represent everyone in Arkansas. He’s also from Eastern Arkansas, which is outside the Republican stronghold, Northwestern Arkansas. That means he would have a good chance into giving Blanche a run for her money in Eastern Arkansas. Why is no one taking the time to get to know him. How come he hasn’t been interviewed?
October 2nd, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Keith – I assume you are talking about MSM but I actually did interview Fred Ramey a couple months ago but I had a problem with my camera (batteries went dead in the middle of the interview) so I was unable to post it. And I have not seen Mr. Ramey since then to re-interview.
October 2nd, 2009 at 3:38 pm
We continue to be well received throughout the state. Our campaign is appealing to the average Arkansan who feels that they have been left out of the process. We continue to reach out to people from ALL walks of life, not just those with deep pockets. We share the conservative values of NW AR, Central AR, and yes those “generational democrats”, who are conservative In East and South AR. I CAN run in all four corners. We have got to run strong in the east and south! I am the one in this race that can bring them on board! As for the interview: Jason I do remember the camera incident. I would like to reschedule that soon if you don’t mind.
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:34 am
Griffin may seek to be annointed as the front-runner, but he will be the second place finisher in November if he is the Republican nominee. Fairly or unfairly, Griffin is tainted with the most negative aspects of the Bush administration. We can beat Vic if we are talking about the Obama record, we will lose to Vic if we are talking about all the issues that killed Republicans in 2006 and 2008. Griffin has too much baggage to beat Vic.
October 3rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Gosh, I don’t think anyone is in the lead so far. Curtis Coleman seemed passionate on Friday, Fred Ramey seemed almost scared but likeable, Conrad Reynolds is bold and able to command attention, Tom Cox seems likeable but you don’t know much more than tea party, and I go to tea parties events, Baker was a no show, and frankly his cockiness is a real turn off as is his reaching over to democrats, Hendren’s son was a good speaker but Hendren is a former democrat which seems to be what Baker is but says he is something else. Buddy Rogers was articulate and actually said a few things that made me listen and think (good quality), I was interested, The other race: Griffen is an attorney and frankly there are too many attorneys in DC so that does not inspire trust in me, There was a question asked on Friday luncheon that I thought deserved more thought in all of the candidates (that bothered to come) How will you reach out to the Black Community?
I hope some of the candidates spoke with the Gentleman that asked the question, and asked How do I?
Rogers answer was the best start. Telling people well I have black friends, does not get it. Haven’t any of the candidates gone to Raging Elephants website? Maybe they should
To the Candidates on Friday, Thank for the time, but I want to know what you think on real issues now…Looking on your websites now
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Kay,
I worked at an inner city charter school several years ago and I am out picking up kids (black, white, and hispanic) for church on a weekly basis. I have made some contacts in the black community in Little Rock and was at an event they held tonight.
The National Black Republican Assembly also has a good website as well. I may not be able to raise the big money others can, but I am reaching out into the communities and building a strong grassroots campaign.
I believe the 2010 election will be different from the others.
Here to Serve,
David Meeks
Candidate- US House (AR-2)
October 4th, 2009 at 7:30 am
I don’t really like the question, “what about the black vote,” or how do we get the black vote. Personally I don’t think we should court the “black” vote because it seems kinda like we are lumping black people into one big group and assigning a stereotype to them. The question of how do we get the black vote, easy, treat them like individuals who think on their own. We won’t win the entire demographic, but at least we will be preserving the dignity of the individual.
At this time there are no national policies that prevent blacks from having the same lifestyle as anyone else. That is not to say that racism is eliminated, it is just shrouded, but getting past our little prejudices is going to take time and some serious thoughtfulness. Lets quit treating black people as a class and look to the individual. That is what we say we believe as conservatives.
October 4th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Gosh the question was asked by a Black Minister in Pulaski County. Wow….We should be reaching out and not assuming that everyone knows what Republicans stand for.
But with our lines being so blurred for so long…we need to reach out to many people who do not know what a true Republican believes.
You right that everyone needs to stand on their own. Democrats believe that the government needs to help you stand up because on your own you can’t stand up. Many people born in US these days, believe the government and democrats are there to help them. What they don’t realize is that the government and democrats keep them there so The Government and Democrat Party can have power. I am certain you know Nick, that if the Government and Democrat Party had really wanted to help all the people with their problems it would have already happened.
Big Government wants power and control, if we can teach people and show people that freedom comes from less control of the government and they can stand on their own without the Democrats and (sadly a Republicans), Reaching out to every community through their ministers seems to be a good start don’t you think?
I think we are saying some of the same things Nick, however, I was addressing a question from the Friday luncheon.
Individual responsibility…… isn’t it ours
October 4th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
I agree with everything said, I just don’t think that it is all that wise to classify people and go after them as a demographic and not an individual. I know we cannot avoid these things, but it is well past time that elections should be about ideas. I just wonder if politicians ever quit going after demographics and start talking to folks like they are real life people who think for themselves we might be able to overcome this. I don’t care who asked the question, the answer is clear, “I think less about demographics than I do policy, here are my ideas and I think they will help you, please think this over and consider voting for me.”
October 5th, 2009 at 8:24 am
I love how the republican party and its members enjoy tearing each other apart.
October 5th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
no surprise here, GB has raised some big money. Good for him, in the meantime he has ignored many groups and not shown up for their meetings and flat out stood some up. If you want to break it down, it is very possible that he raised that money from anywhere from 250, to 50,000 people. I would like to see where the money came from. My bet is that it is not from a majority of republican rank and file, but rather from some lobbyist and big donor pockets possibly even from many dems, who owe Baker one after he helped them pull one over on David Bisbee. I am not against GB, but I have been very disappointed in his entrance into this race and his untruthfulness about it.
October 5th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
At least we don’t eat our own…as some do, but I love the debate. Thank goodness you can still do that in Republican party as for the another party (democrats)…. Democrats must do as they are told.
That just proves my point…thank you
October 8th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I, too, am a little worried about TG being tied to Bush and we ALL know that Snyder would use that against him in the general election (worm that he is). Rather than talk about his dismal record of voting against the people of the 2nd district for 7 terms, he’s going to try to paint TG as a Bush lackey. But obviously he can raise the money to go against a well-funded Snyder. David Meeks with his 3rd quarter fundraising numbers hasn’t proved he can do that. It’ll take more than just grassroots support to win this election, both for the Senate and the House.