The Tolbert Report

UPDATE - Huckabee just issued the following statement…

“We commend Dede Scozzafava for stepping aside and in light of her very unselfish announcement, we join the RNC and other Republicans in urging support for Doug Hoffman. ”

HuckPAC spokesman confirms that this is an official endorsement from Gov. Huckabee and HuckPAC.

….

Original Message

In an off year special election and a three way race with a conservative third party candidate leading in the polls, the New York 23rd Congressional Race has become the focal point of the conservative blogosphere. A few weeks back, I broke the news that Gov. Huckabee would not be endorsing anyone in this heavily watched race. This went over like a lead balloon with some of the conservative blogs pushing for Republican leaders to support the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and this came to a spearhead today on the prominent blog RedState.

Responding to a Politico post regarding Huckabee’s decision to stay out of the race, RedState blogger Erick Erickson said, “I know, in fact, that he will not endorse because Club for Growth and Fred Thompson were there first and his ego couldn’t take it.”

Although I personally would have liked Huckabee to have endorsed Hoffman, I found Erickson’s claim a bit over the top so I asked he how he knew this for a fact. Erickson claimed that his information is based on a source who currently works for Huckabee but decline to say who. “I’d prefer not to name my source so Huckabee can fire the person,” Erickson told me via twitter. “Deny as you like, it is still true.”

Being the pesky blogger that I am, I decided to ask Huckabee spokesman and director of HuckPAC, Sarah Huckabee about Erickson’s claim. “It’s a totally false claim and the source is clearly not informed,” Huckabee told me. “No one I know of that has any authority whatsoever made that statement to Erikson.” She feels comfortable with this statement considering HuckPAC only employs five staff members and none of them have made such a statement.

So back to the original question of why did Huckabee take a pass on an endorsement? “He will not support the GOP candidate due to her very liberal positions on about everything,” said Huckabee in reference to the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. She went on to say that HuckPAC’s “resources are focused on GOP races and not independent ones” and therefore they decided it was not the best use of their time or resource to endorse Doug Hoffman’s race as he is not the Republican nominee.

As for Erickson’s source, she said whomever it is clearly does not know what they are talking about. “That’s like saying I used to work for the Philly’s as a Hot dog vendor and now I know how Cliff Lee decided on every pitch he threw Wednesday night in game one of the series!”

I do personally wish Huckabee had endorsed Hoffman but to me this claim makes more sense than some grand conspiracy or old axe to grind. In fact, Huckabee went so far as to tell me she wants “Club for Growth to endorse the candidates we endorse because they spend a lot of money to help get them elected.”

UPDATE - Gov. Mike Huckabee himself addressed this on Neil Cavuto’s show on FoxNews saying, “I am not going to go out and endorse somebody who did not get picked by the Republicans.”

The liberal group Progressive Change Campaign Committee had Research 2000 conduct a poll primarily attempting to show support for a public option but they also polled the Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s reelection chances and found that things are still not looking very good for the Senator. In a head to head match up with State Sen. Gilbert Baker, Lincoln led with 41% preferring her to 39% for Baker. This also debunks the poll circulated by the DSCC two weeks ago which showed Lincoln with a 13 point lead over Baker and supports my claim that the DSCC poll was a “push poll.”

Research 2000 also polled the match up with Sen. Lincoln and Curtis Coleman which showed Lincoln with 43% and Coleman with 38%. Interestingly enough, this poll gave the Coleman Campaign the opportunity to be one of the first campaigns to engage another Republican Campaign directly.

“Frankly it is astonishing that a career politician such as Gilbert Baker who has served both in the state legislature and as Chairman of the Republican Party of Arkansas is not doing better,” said Lauren Huckabee, Campaign Manager for Curtis Coleman. Huckabee was quick to emphasis that she believes this poll shows that Coleman can compete well against Lincoln. “This poll reinforces what previous polls have suggested; Curtis Coleman can beat Blanche Lincoln. The race is neck and neck.”

What will also be interesting is how Stanley Reed will poll if he gets in the race. A Republican official from eastern Arkansas told me this week that they believe Reed will soon jump in. How this will change the dynamics of this primary race is anyone’s guess but the person I spoke with believes Reed will connect well with the agriculture and business base of Arkansas that will help in the general election by taking votes away from Lincoln.

Things must really be bad for Sen. Blanche Lincoln. The above ad from the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee is a sure sign that the national Democrats are worried about her losing their seat. So worried that theylaunched an attack ad when the election is over a year away. And not only that but the ad takes aim at seven Republican candidates.

The DSCC criticizes Kim Hendren for his “that Jew” comment and Curtis Coleman for his “visas and a shots” comment. Okay, fair enough. Hendren apologized for his comment and Coleman said his comment was “stupid.” But the other two examples seem to show how out of touch the DSCC really is with Arkansans.

For Conrad Reynolds, they say that he “implies the President is a ‘domestic enemy’.” This attack is based on a July 24 article by Seth Blomely in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette where Reynolds was quoted as saying, “When I joined the military I took an oath to defend the Constitution against enemies foreign and domestic. I never thought it would be domestic, but in today’s world I do believe we have enemies here. It’s time for people to stand up. It’s time for us to speak out.” Reynolds later clarified in the article that he was referring to those with a socialist agenda and was not making any reference to President Obama.

“The remark Col. Reynolds’ is being attacked for questions the policies of President Obama – policies overwhelmingly rejected by the people of Arkansas last year and strongly embraced by Sen. Lincoln today,” said K. Ryan James, Reynolds’ Campaign Manager. “Today’s attack by the DSCC of a decorated war veteran for his audacity to question our leaders reminds us of the ‘un-American’ attack made by Sen. Lincoln against Arkansans who also dared to question their government.”  James went on to say, “This hit piece from the DSCC so early in the process, coupled with Sen. Lincoln’s new committee chairmanship, should cause all Arkansans to take notice of all of Sen. Lincoln’s upcoming votes on the health care bill, in order that they may see how many times she sides with Sen. Reid and President Obama by way of payback.”
 

For Gilbert Baker, they really reached as far as they could go, saying that he “opposes equal pay for women.” This statement is a reference to Sen. Baker’s opposition to a bill introduced in the state legislature which would have attempted to ratify the Equal Right Amendment. I got news for the DSCC, opposing the ERA may be considered extreme in Washington DC but not in Arkansas. Even so, to say Baker’s opposition to the ERA means he “opposes equal pay for women” in a giant leap.

“It’s disappointing, although not surprising, to see Sen. Lincoln and the DSCC roll out the Washington-style campaign tactics so early in this campaign,” said Alice Stewart, Baker’s Deputy Campaign Manager.  “Evidently, the facts got lost in the DSCC graveyard, or they would know that Sen. Baker has fought hard for equal pay for equal work and sponsored legislation to ensure that the State of Arkansas is not engaging in gender-based pay disparity in state government. We fully expect Senator Lincoln to run the most negative campaign in Arkansas history to try and run away from her record. We call on Senator Lincoln to join with us in pledging to run a positive campaign and leave the Washington-style, negative campaigning in DC.”

The fact that the DSCC feels the need to spend money on an election 368 days away tells me that someone up in Washington is pretty worried. This could get interesting.

Coming off his announcement Tuesday, Scott Wallace is making the rounds speaking to the Central Arkansas Young Republicans Wednesday over lunch at Loca Luna. However unlike his announcement speech, he was very candid on his views from his departure from KARN to what he believes are the biggest weaknesses of his opponents both in the primary and the general election.

Wallace began by emphasizing, as he did in his announcement speech, that he feels he is the most qualified candidate to beat Rep. Vic Snyder but went into greater detail as to why. “I don’t have any Washington baggage,” said Wallace in reference to his primary opponent Tim Griffin’s time spent working as an adviser to President George W. Bush and his brief but controversial tenure as U.S. Attorney of the Eastern District of Arkansas. (Wallace clarified later to me that he was not only referring to Griffin but to Snyder and anyone else who is a Washington insider.)

He also pointed out that while Griffin is an attorney, he is a small business owner and knows what it is like to have to make payroll. “We already have too many attorneys in Washington,” said Wallace citing this as one of the reasons that legislation coming out of Congress is hundreds of pages long and too complex to understand.

Wallace also discussed his involvement in the central Arkansas community serving on the Arkansas Tobacco Control Board and the Arkansas Motor Vehicle Commission as well as a reserve Pulaski County Deputy Sheriff. He said he felt this involvement will translate into support from “within Arkansas not Washington D.C.” and said he expects former Arkansas Congressman John Paul Hammerschmidt will soon be endorsing his campaign

However Wallace did not limit his comments only to the professional differences with Griffin, he also got personal. Referring first to Rep. Snyder, Wallace said that Snyder is “most vulnerable because of his personal life and family situation.” Referring to the fact that Rep. Snyder’s wife recently had triplets, Wallace said, “Vic needs to be at home and needs to be a dad.” He went on to say that “Griffin is even more in this boat than Vic.” Wallace said that he told Griffin in a phone conversation a couple week ago, “The worst thing you can do is be elected and be a part time dad.” He said that Griffin told him his wife was completely supportive of his candidacy but Wallace said that would change once Griffin was in Washington and not available to help with the children. Wallace held that his situation with grown children better enables him to meet the travel demands of a Congressman since Griffin has a young daughter and his wife is expecting. (Wallace also later added to me that he was not trying to “attacking Vic and Tim over being a father” in his comments and said, “I think it is an honor to be a father and every father’s first responsibility to be there in the early years of a child’s life.”)

Wallace did have some kind words about his other primary opponent David Meeks but discounted his chances. “David Meeks is a very nice guy but will have a difficult time funding a serious campaign.” He said that he meet Meeks several times and is glad he is running. He praised Meeks ability to organize grassroots volunteers and said this will be an important role in the campaign but if he cannot raise enough money, he is not going to be able to compete.

Wallace also addressed his abrupt departure from KARN Newsradio where he hosted a morning talk radio show. Going into great detail, Wallace said that the executives at Citadel Broadcasting in Las Vegas decided to fire him after a lawsuit was threatened for remarks he made on the air. “If I get firing for that (speaking the truth) I am all about that,” said Wallace. “Stand up for the truth. Do what is right.”

Wallace also commented that he believes the Republican Party has “lost their way” and strayed from their conservative principles. “I am a conservative first and a Republican second,” said Wallace. “There are certain core values that I will never compromise on.” He went on say that decided to run as he felt Vic Snyder was not representing Arkansas values that he decided it was time to no longer stand on the sidelines.

Most central Arkansas Republicans I have spoken with are pleased to see several strong opponents compete for the chance to take on Vic Snyder next November but if Wallace’s comments today are any indication, we are in for a long primary.

UPDATE – I spoke to Tim Griffin this morning and he declined to comment on the remarks Wallace made regarding his family situation but instead focused on the race against Rep. Snyder.

“We need a representative who shares the values of Arkansans and can counter the agenda of President Obama and Nancy Pelosi,” said Griffin. “I will continue to make the case to Arkansans that President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Congressman Snyder are going too far, too fast and their misguided policies are bankrupting this country.”

A crowd of around 75 supporters gathered together at Whole Hog Café in Little Rock to hear local businessman Scott Wallace as he kicked off his campaign for Congress. His pastor Bill Elliff from the Summit Church in North Little Rock opened up with prayer and his finance chairman Martha McCaskill introduced Wallace saying that he was someone who “understood what it is like to run a business and to meet a payroll.”

“This is going to be a unique year,” a confident Wallace told his supporters. “2010 is going to be a year that conservatism finally finds a home, that we finally find some people that will be stand up Republicans and be conservatives and not be Republican/Democrats anymore. We are going to find some people who will stand up for what is right in this country.”

Wallace discussed his roots in Arkansas and said that he felt his background gave him a leg up both in the primary and the general election. “The advantage I have over my opponents in the primary as well as over Vic Snyder is I am Arkansas,” said Wallace. “ I am Arkansas all the way to the bone. This is home. I have businesses here, my family is here, my friends are here, and everything for me is here. They don’t have that.   We don’t have the Washington insider label. They can’t stick a bunch of baggage on us. They can’t put wide outlandish votes on us.”

Wallace encouraged the crowd to support what he described as “the home town team” not only with financial support but by volunteering as well. “This is not about me,” said Wallace. “I don’t have any kind of an ego to become a Congressman. That has nothing to do with it. It is about standing up and fighting for what is right.”

Wallace excited the crowd in conclusion by saying that he is “not afraid of a fight” and that “it is time for Vic to go home.”  Wallace will face former U.S. Attorney and adviser to President Bush Tim Griffin as well as political newcomer David Meeks in the primary.

All eyes were on Syracuse last night as Gov. Mike Huckabee spoke at an awards dinner for the Conservative Party of New York. The dinner was only miles away from New York’s 23rd Congressional District where Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman is in a three way race for the seat.

Many of the Conservative leaders within the Republican Party, including Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty, have endorsed Hoffman over the liberal Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava sending Hoffman surging ahead in the polls.

Prior to the dinner, Huckabee had declined to endorse Hoffman but everyone was paying careful attention to what he said. Sources within the Hoffman Campaign confirmed just hours before the event to the Tolbert Report today that Hoffman would be in attendance.

Then, less than two hours before the event began they reported that there was a last minute “schedule change” and Hoffman would not be there and issued the following statement…

“This is a 10 month campaign compressed into 4 weeks. Our schedule changes numerous times every day. The Conservative Party is behind us 110% and Gov. Huckabee all but endorsed us last week on FOX TV. In the last week of the campaign we are focusing on winning over as many voters as possible. So we will be on the road doing just that.”

Huckabee’s topic for the dinner was “re-igniting the conservative movement in a liberal climate.” Although this would have easily set up Huckabee to praise Hoffman for his strong conservative stands and his campaign, Huckabee did not mention his race at all.  Instead he stuck to praising the five New York Conservative Party members who received awards at the dinner that night.  According to a report from The Post Standard in Syracuse, Huckabee delivered a 45-minute speech on conservatism but said that he did not want to cause a distraction by discussing any local political races.

From The Post Standard…

“While (Huckabee) is obviously a Republican, he has been such an outspoken advocate for conservative values and principles. He also puts those principles ahead of party politics,” said Scott Chatfield, a member of the Upstate Multi-County Committee of the Conservative Party, which hosted the event.

Despite the political theme of the night, the former governor did not endorse any candidates for the vacant seat in the 23rd Congressional District. “The governor was very concerned that there be no political linkage,” Chatfield said. Huckabee agreed to attend the event strictly as a non-political participant.

“I wanted nothing to distract from the accolades and honor bestowed upon these five people,” Huckabee said during his speech. He was not available for interview.

Many, including myself, are scratching their heads on this one.  Although I did not expect an endorsement, I fully expected Huckabee to offer praise to Hoffman for standing up for conservative principles and perhaps have a photo op with the two of them for the paper the next day.  Huckabee’s reluctance to get involved in a race in which there is a clear conservative choice is puzzling to this long time Huckabee supporter.

Stephen Meeks, brother of Congressional Candidate David Meeks, will announce on Friday, October 30, 2009 his candidacy as a Republican for Arkansas State Representative district 47. This district covers parts of Faulkner, Conway, and Van Buren counties.  This seat is currently held by Democrat Rep. Eddie Hawkins of Vilonia who is up for re-election for his third term this year.

The announcement will take place during October’s Arkansas Conservative Forum Meeting. The lunchtime meeting will be held at Ryan’s Steakhouse 1400 Old Morrilton Hwy, in Conway. The event will take place from 11:30 am – 1:00 pm.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced this afternoon that the Senate Health Care Bill will include provisions for government run insurance (public option.) The details are still forthcoming but apparently the provision will allow for states to opt out of the program. Sen. Reid indicated that he believes he can obtain the support from all the members of his caucus for the proposal, which certainly leads to the question of whether Arkansas Democratic Senators Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor will support the measure.

Sen. Lincoln’s communication director, Katie Laning Niebaum, made it clear that Lincoln’s support is not a given. “Senator Lincoln has said, as with any change to the bill she supported in the Finance Committee, she will have to see the legislative language and cost first and will evaluate it based on its impact on Arkansans,” said Niebaum.

“Blanche Lincoln needs to explain where she stands once and for all – will she stand up against President Obama’s government takeover of America’s health care system and vote against Harry Reid’s bill, or will she put politics before people in Arkansas and allow this bill to reach the Senate floor?” asked Amber Wilkerson Marchand, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Senator Lincoln claims that she’s unequivocally against a public option – will she keep her word, or will she bend to the left like she did on the bloated stimulus bill and the White House budget?”

“Sen. Lincoln has another choice to make,” said possible Republican opponent Conrad Reynolds.  ”Will she again stand with Sen. Reid and the liberal leaders in Washington in order to pay the tab on her new committee chairmanship, or will she choose to honor the conservative values of the people of Arkansas? I call on Sen. Lincoln to follow through on her position of last week saying she ‘ruled out’ government controlled healthcare by voting to oppose any cloture motion which would bring the public option to a full vote. A vote for cloture enables the passage of the public option – no matter how Sen. Lincoln votes in the end.”

“Sooner or later, Sen. Lincoln is going to have to take a side on government-run health care and stick with it,” State Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is also competing for the Republican nomination, tells the Tolbert Report. ”Her constant back-and-fourth on the issue only demonstrates the fact that she doesn’t have a problem with putting politics before the people of Arkansas. We need a leader in the U.S. Senate who will be a check and balance to President Obama, Harry Reid, and Sen. Lincoln’s attempts for a government takeover of our health care system.”

I was out last week but somehow Arkansas politics survived without me and even saw several events unfold.

U.S. Senate candidate Gilbert Baker hired former Press Secretary to Mike Huckabee Alice Stewart to as his Deputy Campaign Manager / Communications Director. After hauling in over half a million dollars, more than five times the amount of his Republican opponents combined, Baker is seen by most as the frontrunner.

In spite of this, the Fourth Congressional District Republicans in south Arkansas held a straw poll and picked Curtis Coleman as their man for the job. There is not much details on who all participated in this straw poll over the weekend in Texarkana (if anyone was there, please pass on a report) but the Coleman campaign thought it worthy of a press release.  No mention if Coleman received “a visa and a shot“ before making the trip. (Sorry, that one was too easy.)

Meanwhile, Stanley Reed’s on again off again flirtation with the U.S. Senate race went back to the on again status as he tells David Sanders that he is strongly considering running against Sen. Lincoln as a Republican. Sanders declares on twitter “Stanley Reed would be the strongest Republican if he chooses to run” but cautions me not to take this as an  endorsement. Also, Reed tells John Lyons that he if he does not run, he has not decided if he will support Lincoln or not.  Wait a second – WHAT???

Speaking of Reed, I exchanged awkward smiles and pleasantries with him for the first time on Saturday evening at the wedding of the first couple of the Arkansas new media, Jessica Dean and Blake Rutherford. They were nice enough to invite me and my fellow lonely misfit bloggers to the occasion, which was in Dean’s parent’s backyard and reminded me very much a scene from “Father of the Bride,” which is where I lifted this picture from.  My wife told me that taking my flip cam to the wedding would be “creepy.” The wedding was lovely.

Back in the Second Congressional Republican race, Tim Griffin announces that he has signed the American for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing in writing “to oppose any and all tax increases.” Both opponents David Meeks and Scott Wallace tell me they plan to sign this but has not done so yet. Wallace is putting on a kick-off fundraiser at Whole Hog in west Little Rock tomorrow night and Griffin will “going whole hog” as well next week on November 5.

That’s all I got for now. I am sure I missed something and I am sure you will let me know in the comments section.

Worth noting – Progressive Democrat Drew Pritt lets me know that he plans to challenge Sen. Blanch Lincoln next spring in the Democratic Primary.  Pitt represents the feeling among some Democrats to the left of Lincoln that they are not being represented.

Lately, I have been distracted from Arkansas politics by a race over a thousand miles away. Upstate New York’s 23rd Congressional District has turned into one of the most important races for the future of the Republican Party. The outcome of this race will have an important impact on whether Republicans will choose to be a party based on principles or on pragmatism.

The Republican in this race, State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, was chosen not by the voters through a primary process but instead by the eleven Republican chairman of the county committees within the Congressional District. This might have been alright if they had selected an obvious conscience candidate but instead they chose Scozzafava who is so far from the central principles that unites Republicans that she is unacceptable. Scozzafava does not even pretend to be a social conservative. She is openly pro-abortion, in favor of legalization in every circumstance. She is also an advocate for gay rights and voted in favor of same sex marriage. She also has a record of supporting tax increases although she recent signed the Americans for Tax Reform tax pledge in exchange for the endorsement of Newt Gingrich.

Because of these reasons many conservative Republicans including Fred Thompson and Sarah Palin have endorsed the Conservative Party nominee, Doug Hoffman. Hoffman clearly represents the conservative position Republicans have typically held. He is pro-life and for traditional marriage. He is a business owner and a Certified Public Accountant in New York (thumbs up.) He is clearly the type of candidate conservatives should be supporting.

So why does it matter to conservatives in Arkansas? Republicans right now are at an important crossroads. Some within the party seek to move to a more moderate position. These so-called Big Tent Republicans believe that by moving more toward the center, Republican can achieve greater success. This was the thinking of the Republican Party leaders that selected Scozzafava as their nominee.

“We are not going to win by becoming more like the Democrats,” wrote Hoffman in an op-ed in the New York Post. “We’re going to win by standing up for our beliefs. It’s principle over party. It’s a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. It’s a fight for fiscal responsibility and the return of common sense to those who govern us.”

Reading this I cannot help but think of Matthew 16:26 which says “What good will it be for a man if he gains the whole world, yet forfeits his soul?” Even if the big tent strategy would work (and I do not believe it would,) what good would it do to elect a bunch of Republicans would do not represent conservative principles?

The mid-term elections next year will be very important. It is important for conservatives in Arkansas to let the Republican Party know that we will only lend our support to conservatives regardless of the party label.

That is why today I am giving my full support to Doug Hoffman for Congress. And I ask that you do the same. Find out more about Hoffman at his website, follow him on twitter, join his Facebook group, or even better donate to his campaign.