The Tolbert Report

It has been over a week since I have posted about the U.S. Senate race and almost a month since I have mentioned Card Check.  So State Sen. Gilbert Baker helps me out today by giving me a story that combines both.

According to an AP story, a group called Save Our Secret Ballot in Arkansas filed a proposed state constitutional amendment with the Secretary of State that will require union election to be conducted by secret ballot.  Sen. Gilbert Baker chairs the group.

As I have discussed ad nauseum here Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s ever-changing position on card check which would open up union elections.  Currently, she is against it.

Could Baker’s support for this proposed amendment be a sign that he may be getting in the race?  Either way, we should find out soon.  Appearing on KARN on April 14, Baker said he will make his decision within the next “two or three weeks” which means by the first part of next week.

UPDATE – This is obviously subject to the Attorney General’s approval, which will only then begin the petition gathering process but here is the text of what the SOS group submitted to the Attorney General’s office…

Popular Name – An Amendment Concerning the Right to Vote by Secret Ballot

Ballot Title – A Proposed Amendment to the Arkansas Constitution to Preserve and Protect the Fundamental Right of Individuals to Vote by Secret Ballot; that Where Local, State, or Federal Law Requires Elections for Public Office or Ballot Measures, or Requires Designation or Authorizations for Employee Representation, the Right of Individuals to Vote by Secret Ballot Shall Be Guaranteed.

Text – Section 1 – Right of Indiviuals (sic) to Vote – The fundamental right of individuals to vote by secret ballot shall be preserved and protected.

Section 2 – Secret Ballot – Where local, state, or federal law requires elections for public office or ballot measures, or requires designations or authorizations for employee representation, the right of individuals to vote by secret ballot shall be guaranteed.

Also, weighing in on the matter is blogging Speaker of the House Robbie Wills who speculates that Baker’s move may mean he is not going to run against Sen. Lincoln. Wills writes, “Might this mean Gilbert has found something to do in the 2010 election season other than run against U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln? I think so.”

It is good to see Robbie join me in the political prognostications. I hope to see more of this on his blog. Question to Robbie, if Baker runs for U.S. Senate and wins, will you run for his seat?

A few weeks back David Kinkade of Arkansas Project fame broke the news that “Jonesboro businessman Rick Crawford is weighing a Republican challenge to Democratic Rep. Marion Berry in 2010.”  If you are like me, your first thought was great but who’s Rick Crawford.  “The Iron Man” NASCAR driver number 14? No, although state Rep. Mark Martin will tell you having a NASCAR name is an asset to any Arkansas politician.

Well, now there is the website that will gives all the answers!  Rick Crawford has launched a website called “Meet Rick Crawford” to introduce himself to the state.  “There has been a lot of speculation of late as to whether or not I will be running for Congress in Arkansas’ first Congressional District in 2010, and I have an answer to that question,” Crawford says on his website. “However, I think folks should have the opportunity to get to know me a little better before I answer it.”

Crawford discusses his career from his time in the Army as a bomb disposal technician to his studies in Agriculture Business and Economics at ASU to his time in the rodeo both as a saddle bronc rider and later an announcer to his current project of a news anchor and agri-reporter in Jonesboro. 

After a proper introduction, Crawford writes, “the answer to the above question is YES – I’m planning to run. I’ll need your help though, and this will be a grassroots campaign from start to finish. The pundits are calling this an uphill battle, and I’d have to agree. But, give folks a compelling reason to change their minds and I think they will.”

If you like what you read about him, you can click on over to his Facebook page and become a fan.  I did!

Coming off the heels of Sen. Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democratic Party, Rep. Steve Harrelson broke a bit of news this morning on his blog. According to his short post, “Expect an announcement on Friday of an Arkansas state legislator making the switch to the Democratic Party.”

I asked him who it is but he was sworn to secrecy. So let the speculation begin and what better place to start than right here on the Tolbert Report! Actually, it already started on twitter.

What Republican state representative would be most likely be switching to the Democrat Party? My first thought was Robbie Wills favorite Republican Rick Green. Looking at Green’s voting record over the past session, I don’t believe that anyone could tell that he actually is a Republican without looking it up. In addition, he is term limited and likely to seek the Senate seat vacated by state Sen. Denny Altes who is also term limited.  vacated by Sen. Ruth Whitaker in 2012. Green maybe be worried that his consistently non-conservative voting record will draw a Republican Primary opponent and his chances are better served in the general election as a Democrat.  (NOTED – Rick Green comments on my careless alligation in the comments section.)

However, Rep. Jonathan Dismang correctly points out that Harrelson never said it was a Republican switching parties. In 2008, Arkansans elected Richard Carroll to the state house as the first ever Green Party candidate. Granted this was primarily due to Dwayne Dobbins messing things up for the Democrats in district 39 but he is still a Green Party hero. Will Carroll abandon all this to join one of the evil two major parties? Perhaps Carroll values his reelection more than his position in the Green Party and feels he would have a better chance as the Democrat Party nominee in a traditionally Democrat district or perhaps he feels the need to join the major party to be able to move through legislation.

Any other ideas who it might be? Let me know. Either way – my money is on Green or “Green.”

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UPDATE – John Lyon with the Arkansas News Bureau spoils our fun by reporting, complete with quotes and all that jazz, that it is Rep. Richard Carroll of the Green Party that is headed to the Democrat Party. 

Imaginary reports say that House Speaker Robbie Wills is in tears over the loss of his favorite phrase – “tripartisan support.”

Flashback – Rep. Richard Carroll discusses the importance of third parties with the Tolbert Report.

A tip of the hat today to my blogging friend from the other side of the aisle Blake Rutherford for systemically and methodically making the case for the power of the Arkansas blogosphere.

He begins by linking Brummett’s strange confession that these “youngblood local bloggers” – I guess that means us – are the only thing keeping him from retirement. You’re welcome John; glad we could help. Blogosphere 1 – Main Stream Media – 0

Rutherford then moves on the Log Cabin Democrat article which implies that Halter hinted during an interview that he just might be considering a primary challenge to Sen. Lincoln. Fellow youngblood David Kinkade puts his journalistic investigation of journalists skills to the test and exposes this as an out of context stretch of the facts. Rutherford notes that there is still no retraction from the Log Cabin Democrat. Blogosphere 2 – Main Stream Media – 0

Next on the line-up, the local Arkadelphia publication The Daily Siftings Herald. Arkadelphia has debated the issue of alcohol sales ever since 1885 when they passed the “Three Mile Law” banning alcohol sales within three miles of a school or church (and therefore the entire city of Arkadelphia.) This debate has come to a head lately as the pro-alcohol crowd (ie. college students) has almost gotten enough support to overturn the nearly 125 year ban. But don’t look for news of this in The Daily Sifting Herald; those drunkards and teetotalers can fight out for themselves as far as they are concerned. Ignoring the biggest story in town? Blogosphere 3 – Main Stream Media – 0

At this point, Rutherford has made his point but he just can’t help but pour salt in the wound. He takes the opportunity to take a victory lap by singing the praises of the granddaddy of all the blogs, the Drudge Report. Rutherford quotes Gabriel Sherman of The New Republic as saying, “A decade after he burst onto the national scene during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Drudge remains one of the most powerful figures in journalism.” Rutherford really goes the extra mile for the team with this one; with disregard for his Clintonian roots, Rutherford praises the relevance of the lonely misfit who started the Lewinsky scandal. Well done my friend! Blogosphere 4 – Main Stream Media – 0

Mike Huckabee’s Presidential campaign achieved success beyond what most political pundits would have predicted. There are many reasons surrounding this but certainly not the least of which is the online strategy deployed by his web strategic team LCM Strategies. Huckabee’s campaign manager Chip Saltsman worked with LCM during their work for Bill Frist’s political action committee VOLPAC and brought them in shortly after his second place showing in the Iowa Straw Poll. By developing a complete web strategy, not just a one size fits all website but also building strategic relationships with independent bloggers and websites such as Huck’s Army, Huckabee’s campaign was able to create a dominate web presence on a lean budget.

Politico put it this way, “The Republican Party didn’t have any serious losing primary candidates in 2004, and the only mainstream candidate to emerge from the 2008 election with a robust online operation was Mike Huckabee. Despite facing the scorn of much of the organized conservative online establishment, the former Arkansas governor has built a rapport with smaller bloggers, nourished a community on his own site and built an e-mail list that an aide, Chris Maiorana, said numbers more than 100,000.”

Now the Republican Party of Arkansas is hoping that the LCM team can work the same magic for them. You may have noticed the increase in activity on the RPA’s Facebook page and recent creation of a twitter account. A tweet from Wednesday promises, “New website under development! Will update you on launch date soon.”

I am very excited to see the RPA making this important step. The strong web presence will be essential for the state party to develop its network around the state and compete in the future. Good move Doyle Webb!

It seems the letter writing campaign that my countless readers have engaged in demanding my appearance on the statewide talking head shows has finally paid off.  This weekend you can tune in to Talk Business with Roby Brock to watch my head talking about state politics. 

We will most certainly spend time discussing the 2010 Senate race as I have just not covered this enough on my blog.  Previous “Roby Talks to Bloggers” episodes have included David Kinkade predicting that Mike Huckabee will teleport back to 1992 and enter the U.S. Senate race and Blake Rutherford (ala Joe Namath) boldly declaring that Sen. Lincoln is “unbeatable.”  Tune in this weekend to see how I can join their political prognosticator’s hall of shame.

Talk Business is a weekly DVR event on my television so lately I have been watching it during the middle of the night feeding with my new son as baby John just can’t get enough of state political talk shows.  I am pretty sure my viewing methodology is the best one but if you want to see or hear it live, here is what you need to know (shamelessly stolen from Kinkade’s post on his appearance):

Talk Business with Roby Brock airs on: Fox 16 in central Arkansas, Sunday, 10 p.m.; Fox 24 in northwest Arkansas, Sunday, 9 a.m.; and Sudden Link Channel 22 in Jonesboro, Monday, 6 p.m.

We’re also proud to introduce our newest time slots on radio in central and northwest Arkansas.  You can catch Talk Business every week on NPR affiliate KUAR-FM 89.1 Mondays at 6 p.m., right before Marketplace.

We also air on KUAF-FM 91.3 Saturdays at 12:30 p.m. on their digital news channel, or you can listen to live streaming audio of our broadcast on their web site, www.kuaf.org.

Roby Brock of Talk Business throws out a question that I have heard mentioned quite a bit in Republican circles lately.  Who is going to go out there and take on Gov. Beebe?  As Brock correctly points out, Beebe’s approval ratings are through the roof.  A survey last month from Public Policy Polling shows Beebe with an approval rating 68% compared to Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s approval rating of 45%.  Do you wonder why so much attention has been on the Senate race?  Beebe even has a 55% approval rating among Republicans.  (Heck, I even like the guy most days.)

Still, Brock is right.  Republicans have to field a candidate to remain a “major political party” under Arkansas election law (ACA § 7-1-101 (17)).  So who is it going to be?  There are two schools of thought on this. 

First, you send out the Party’s best ace to take on the Democrat’s top dog.  Who is the most qualified, experienced, charismatic Republican in the state?  Well, probably Mike Huckabee but he is term limited.  Anyway, I think that whoever you think fits this bill is not going to risk losing this position by taking on a popular incumbent governor, but I could be wrong.

So, here is the second school of thought.  Baseball fans know that managers have to carefully select their starting pitchers based on a number of factors.  During post-season play, the starting pitcher selection is a well timed game of chess as the managers try to get the match-ups they desire.  A smart manager will usually not waste their ace pitcher on the same night that the All Star Cy Young Gold Glover opponent’s pitcher takes the mound.  Instead they will send out the almost retired veteran coming in fresh from Tommy John surgery and save their ace for another night.  In other words, they will sacrifice one game in order to save the series.

Republicans have to send someone to the mound.  And who knows – maybe our Tom Glavine has one more win in him.  But no doubt statewide efforts in the 2010 election will be on the U.S. Senate race on the statewide level and perhaps even more importantly on increase and holding the number of seats in the state legislature.  Keep building the farm system and we can win the World Series next time around.

So who is our Tom Glavine?  Names abound.  Perhaps one of the many names constantly mentioned for the U.S. Senate race.  Perhaps a term limited state legislator with an ax to grind against Beebe.  But whoever it is needs to be ready to run a lean greatly outspent campaign and cannot be afraid to take on the Beebe machine directly.

Volunteers?

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UPDATE - Max Brantely says that it will not be a veteran’s swan song but instead a rookie of the year’s warm up.

The Saline County Republican Committee will host its annual Lincoln Day Dinner this Friday night and it promises put the two potential Republican candidates for U.S. Senate together in the same room.  Tim Griffin is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event and has made no secret of the fact that he is heavily considering challenging Sen. Lincoln in 2010.  Reports from the state College Republican meeting this weekend are that he stopped just short of announcing in his speech to their group on Saturday night. He has said that his decision will come by June 1 and sources report that the decision is eminent.  Zack Stovall on Politics in Arkansas has even been speculated that Griffin may announce at Friday night’s dinner.

And to the mix that state Sen. Kim Hendren has confirmed today that he plans to attend the dinner as well, and you have an exciting event.  Although not formally on the program, Hendren is traveling the state to meet with Republican groups to discuss a possible Senate campaign as well.  Hendren sent out a press release this weekend stating “Today I am announcing my intent to be a Republican candidate for the United States Senate in the 2010 election.”

Will Griffin announce?  Will Hendren and Griffin shake hands for a great Tolbert Report photo op?  Will Gilbert Baker or French Hill “drop by” as well?  Only one way to find out – buy a ticket and show up.  Tickets are $30 until Wednesday when they increase to $40.  If you want some one on one time with Griffin, you can attend the reception as well for $100 (which gets you in the reception and dinner.)  The reception is at 5:30 at Luigi’s in Bryant and the dinner is at 7:00 at the Bauxite Community Center.  Jason Davis is the man with the ticket connection so email him at gopdinner@gmail.com or call him at (501) 580-3308.

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I just heard that rumored Senate candidate Curtis Coleman will be attending the dinner as well.

We rumor mongers have been speculating for months on who would step up to the plate to challenge Sen. Lincoln and now we have one official challenger.  State Senator Kim Hendren this morning announced, “Today I am announcing my intent to be a Republican candidate for the United States Senate in the 2010 election.”   The Tolbert Report speculated on this several weeks ago, after speaking with Sen. Hendren about his intention.  His answer back then certainly sounded like someone planning to jump in saying that he thought Washington could “use a bit of adult supervision.” 

Hendren brings to the table a wealth of experience in state politics and the ability to self-finance his campaign.  His appeal is somewhat of an oddity as he is very conservative on the social issues but somewhat of a moderate on fiscal issues.  For example, he voted in favor of the increase on the cigarette tax and has been a champion of a law requiring motorcyclist to wear helmets.

Hendren was first elected to the Arkansas Senate in 1979 as a Democrat and ran unsuccessfully for various statewide offices in Democratic Primaries in the 80’s including challenging Bill Clinton for Governor in five-way Democrat Primary.  Hendren then took a long break from politics, achieved great success in the business world, before returning in 2001 as a Republican member of the Arkansas House of Representatives and then on to the State Senate in 2003 where he currently serves.

Hendren’s announcement comes as speculation swirls on several other possible Republican Senate candidates, particularly Gilbert Baker and Tim Griffin.  Both men have been making the rounds at the Republican events and both sound very much like someone running for higher office.  An announcement could be eminent for either one. 

Griffin has said that his decision will come by June 1.  Zack Stovall of the Arkansas News Bureau speculated that Griffin’s announcement could come as early as this week, perhaps at the Saline County Lincoln Day Dinner this Friday evening where Griffin is scheduled to be the keynote speaker.  Sources within the Griffin camp confirm the he is still very seriously looking at running even after Hendren’s announcement today and a final decision could come at anytime.

Baker said Tuesday on KARN that he will be making a decision within the next two or three weeks.  Baker is also hitting the Lincoln Day Dinner circuit scheduled to speak to the Craighead County Dinner in Jonesboro on May 2.  Some Arkansas politicos, including everyone’s favorite left-winger Max Brantley and right minded columnist David Sanders, have speculated that Hendren’s announcement means Baker is out.  The thinking here is that Hendren and Baker both appeal to the same base within the Republican Party and therefore Baker, who has a bright political future, will not risk losing his Senate seat and chair position on the Joint Budget Committee in a Senate Primary that he may lose.  They could be right but something tells me Baker is not out just yet, although I admit Hendren’s candidacy hinders his primary chances.

Brantley also throws out the name of Curtis Coleman of Safe Foods and formerly of Curtis Coleman Evangelism.  My history with Coleman goes way back and I can tell you that he would have some major issues to overcome as a candidate.  Hopefully, Coleman will not run.

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UPDATE – Word comes in that Griffin is quite the motorcycle enthusiast.  I guess Hendren will be glad to see he has his helmet with him in this picture!

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UPDATE II -  I inquired of Baker regarding the rumors that he may be out and he assured me that he has not yet made a decision but will soon.  As for Hendren’s announcment, Baker said that he is “thrilled that there are other good people looking at the race.”

Also, Elizabeth Aymond, candidate for President of the Arkansas Young Republicans, twitters that Griffin speaking to the Arkansas College Republicans tonight came very close to announcing.

UPDATE III – Sen. Hendren’s interview on KARN today did not sound as certain as his press release, saying he is “considering running” and a formal announcement will come late this summer or this fall if he decides to run. Maybe I am splitting hairs but it had a slightly less certain tone than his press release had on Saturday.

UPDATE IV - Sen. Hendren clarifies for me saying, “I intend to run, and win, the race for the U.S. Senate in Arkansas.” Confindence!

Sorry for the delay in getting this uploaded.  I’ve been busy okay.  But know you all have just been dying to see the newest addition to the Tolbert household.  Here he is in a rare moment of sleep with my amazing wife Kathy, my four year son Luke, and me.

For those of you who need the details, he was born last Wednesday, April 8 at 7:57 in the morning weighing in at 10 pounds and 9 ounces (for those of you without kids – that is a big baby!) and was 20 inches long.

Ain’t he cute!